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Prime Minister Scott Morrison will make his way to Tokyo for his first official meeting with new Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two nations, with key force multipliers and capability aggregation on the agenda.
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Australia is a nation set apart from many of its regional neighbours, long struggling to balance the paradigms of strategic independence and strategic dependence, torn between competing economic and security relationships, while being limited by a comparatively small population and industrial base.
Typically, this policy and doctrine pendulum always swung more heavily towards a paradigm of dependence, both in the economic and strategic sense, however the changing nature of domestic and global affairs requires renewed consideration.
This is particularly relevent as at the end of the Cold War, Australia like much of the victorious, US-led "free world" bought into two comforting myths, first the victory of the US meant the "end of history" and the era of great power competition had forever been relegated to the pages of antiquity, and, as China continues to grow, it would shake off authoritarianism and become more liberal.
Japan, unlike Australia however, has a long, storied history as a great power, only surrendering that position in the aftermath of the Second World War, which saw the nation conquered by the US-led allies and forcied to embrace a pacifist strategic doctrine, dependent upon the US for security, while still leveraging its economic and political clout as a great power.
However, far from Francis Fukuyama's promise of the "end of history", the US-led liberal-democratic and capitalist economic, political and strategic order is under siege, driven by mounting waves of civil unrest, the impact of sustained economic stagnation across the West, concerns about climate change and the increasing geostrategic competition between the world’s great powers.
Adding further fuel to the fire is the global and more localised impacts of COVID-19, which range from recognising the impact of vulnerable, global supply chains upon national security as many leading nations, long advocates of 'closer collaboration and economic integration', grasp at the lifeboats of the nation-state to secure their national interests.
Despite its relative isolation, Australia’s position as a global trading nation, entrenched in the maintenance and expansion of the post-Second World War order, has left the nation at a unique and troubling crossroads, particularly as its two largest and most influential “great and powerful” friends – the US and the UK – appear to be floundering against the tide of history.
Furthermore, the fragility of these two, 'linchpin' nations has prompted many global dictators to take advantage of the absence – as the old saying states, “When the cat is away, the mice will play”, leaving Australia and many other allies, including Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, exposed to the whims of nations dedicated to the end of post-war order.
Japan in particular, under former prime minister Shinzo Abe and now new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, has sought to re-establish Japan as a traditional great power and, critically, enhance its strategic collaboration and engagement with 'like-minded' regional partners, with Australia front and centre of this push.
Embracing this opportunity, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has confirmed an official visit to the region's other great power, to enhance the post-COVID economic and strategic collaboration efforts between the two nations, with an emphasis on capability aggregation and sharing in the Indo-Pacific.
Prime Minister Morrison said in an official statement, "This will be my first meeting with the new Prime Minister of Japan, His Excellency Mr Suga Yoshihide. I’m honoured to be the first foreign leader to visit Japan to meet with Prime Minister Suga following his appointment.
"Our relationship with Japan over the past few years has gone from strength to strength. We are Special Strategic Partners, and we work closely together on trade, security, defence and technology issues. I look forward to continuing to deepen that partnership.
"Japan will play an important role in our economic recovery from COVID-19. I hope we can chart a course for the re-opening of travel, and discuss ways to deepen our trade ties worth $86 billion, including under the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement."
Building on the positioning of Abe?
For many Japan followers, Prime Minister Suga is former prime minister Abe's natural successor, as a devout follower of Abe's approach to economic reform, national security and multi-lateral relationship building and engagement.
This recognition of Prime Minister Suga's status a continuation of the Abe-era is promising for Australia's leaders, as the two nations seek to navigate the post-COVID realities and challenges of an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific in the face of a distracted and, despite much commentary and reassurances of a return to normality under a potential Biden administration, distracted US.
David Lang, writing for The Australian, details the impact of Abe on this renewed strategic relationship: "It’s also worth remembering that Morrison was first cab off the rank back then too, being the first head of state to speak with Suga upon his elevation.
"That abridged history gives some sense of how eager both Prime Ministers are to kickstart their personal relationship and get down to business. It also speaks to the energy and enthusiasm bound up in the Australia-Japan relationship today, a result of dutiful nurturing on the part of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and the five Australian leaders with whom he worked during his second stay in the Kantei.
"Suga was Abe’s chief cabinet secretary and right-hand man. A true Abe acolyte, he was always in the room and has pledged to advance his former boss’s activist international agenda - policy continuity Australia would welcome.
"There is a lot to discuss, starting with a veritable laundry list related to the COVID-19 response, be it setting up a travel bubble, vaccine diplomacy in south-east Asia and the Pacific, or responding to the foundering global economic environment.
"The Australia-Japan defence and security relationship will be a key agenda item, with the two leaders sharing regional assessments and identifying new seams of co-operation that meet the moment.
"They should also discuss new ways to partner with other countries, such as the US and India, on areas of common concern and interest, particularly where we might have a hope of reinforcing the important rules and norms Beijing rails against.
"Should leaders finally sign a reciprocal defence access agreement — in the works since Tony Abbott was in The Lodge — it would serve as yet another milestone for our bilateral co-operation, which has been steadily deepening for more than a decade."
Building on this, Simon Benson and Olivia Caisley, also writing for The Australian, detail the growing strategic collaboration between the two nations, explaining, "Australia and Japan will ramp up joint military operations, including patrols near disputed islands in the South and East China Sea, under a new defence pact to be progressed by Scott Morrison and his Japanese counterpart Yoshihide Suga this week.
"An in-principle reciprocal access agreement to streamline each nation’s use of the other’s military bases will be a key outcome of the Prime Minister’s trip to Tokyo on Tuesday and Wednesday, in a development likely to escalate tensions with Beijing.
"The agreement will enable Australian ships and aircraft to operate further north with greater regularity, and follows a commitment last month for Japan’s Self-Defence Forces to use force to protect Australian military assets. It will set out a legal framework for defence co-operation including the use of the other country’s bases, conduct during joint exercises, and the sharing of resources such as fuel."
Enhancing allied capability aggregation
Recognising the increasing confluence of challenges facing enduring US tactical and strategic primacy upon which both Australia and Japan are dependent, the University of Sydney-based United States Studies Centre (USSC) has released a telling study, titled Averting Crisis: American strategy, military spending and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific, making a series of powerful recommendations for Australian and allied forces in the region.
Key to these recommendations for Australian and regional partners, like Japan and South Korea, is: "Pursue capability aggregation and collective deterrence in the Indo-Pacific with regional allies and partners."
This can be more broadly defined as emphasising increased training, platform commonality driving interoperability, collaboration on operating doctrine and force structure and a joint pursuit of key, 'joint force' strategic deterrence platforms.
This, is further detailed again by Benson and Caisley who detail and raise important questions about the US and it's positioning in the Indo-Pacific, saying, "The leaders are expected to set out their high-level support for the agreement, making way for detailed legal negotiations on the final wording of the agreement.
"The proposed RAA has been under negotiation since 2014, amid concerns over the legal status of Australian Defence Force personnel who might be implicated in crimes while in Japan, which retains the death penalty for the most serious offences.
"Australia’s regional partners, particularly Japan, are awaiting signs of how a new Biden administration will prioritise the region in its global diplomatic and security strategy after four years of 'America First' under Donald Trump.
"With leadership changes in both the US and Japan, Mr Morrison is keen to focus attention of like-minded nations on the contested two-ocean region, in which China is increasingly asserting its economic and military authority.
"In his first post-election conversation with Joe Biden, Mr Morrison invited the president-elect to Australia next year to mark the 70th anniversary of the ANZUS treaty. His visit to Tokyo is also significant, as he will be the first foreign leader to meet with Mr Suga on Japanese soil since he succeeded Shinzo Abe as prime minister."
Your thoughts
Australia is defined by its economic and strategic relationships with the Indo-Pacific and the access to the growing economies and to strategic sea lines of communication supporting over 90 per cent of global trade, a result of the cost-effective and reliable nature of sea transport.
Indo-Pacific Asia is at the epicentre of the 21st century’s era of great power competition and global maritime trade, with about US$5 trillion worth of trade flowing through the South China Sea and the strategic waterways and chokepoints of south-east Asia annually.
For Australia, a nation defined by this relationship with traditionally larger yet economically weaker regional neighbours, the growing economic prosperity of the region and corresponding arms build-up, combined with ancient and more recent enmities, competing geopolitical, economic and strategic interests, places the nation at the centre of the 21st century’s “great game”.
Enhancing Australia’s capacity to act as an independent power, incorporating great power-style strategic economic, diplomatic and military capability serves not only as a powerful symbol of Australia’s sovereignty and evolving responsibilities in supporting and enhancing the security and prosperity of Indo-Pacific Asia.
Australia is consistently told that as a nation we are torn between our economic relationship with China and the longstanding strategic partnership with the US, placing the country at the epicentre of a great power rivalry – but what if it didn’t have to be that way?
Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of shaking up the nation’s approach to our regional partners.
We would also like to hear your thoughts on the avenues Australia should pursue to support long-term economic growth and development in support of national security in the comments section below, or get in touch with
Stephen Kuper
Steve has an extensive career across government, defence industry and advocacy, having previously worked for cabinet ministers at both Federal and State levels.
