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The Australian federal government has rebuffed a barrage of speculation that the future transfer of Virginia Class submarines is in doubt after the release of US President Joe Biden’s fiscal year 2025 defence budget.
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The defence budget, unveiled on 11 March and based on the 2022 National Defense Strategy, detailed a US$849.8 billion budget request to fund US military investment and operations during the 2025 fiscal year.
More than US$8.2 billion was marked for SSN 774 Virginia Class nuclear-powered submarine in the US defence budget request, more than US$4 billion in funding allocated to the US submarine industrial base, and US$11.1 billion over five years in funding to expand production. The document also confirmed the US Navy is on track for only one fast-attack submarine in 2025, and the US industry is unlikely to produce two submarines per year until 2029.
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles, speaking to ABC Afternoon Briefing on 13 March, said the recent budget announcement has produced no significant surprises in future planning.
“The fact that the American industrial base is stretched in 2024, as it was in 2023 when we made this announcement, is not news. It formed part of the landscape against which this arrangement was agreed a year ago,” he said.
“I think what’s important to see in the budget that’s been put forward by the Biden administration is an $11 billion commitment over the next five years to grow the industrial capacity within the United States to produce Virginia Class submarines, which will see an increase over that time in the tempo of Virginia class submarines produced. That’s what we need to see. That’s as expected.
“The fact that the industrial base is tight in this year is something that we already understood. And so we welcome the fact that we are seeing an increased commitment of funding over the next five years.”
Australia is seeking the future transfer of three Virginia Class submarines from the US in the 2030s, promised under the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, and avoid a capability gap left by the retirement of ageing Collins Class submarines in the same period.
“The commitment we have with the Biden administration and the American government is around the provision of Virginia Class submarines to Australia, and that commitment absolutely remains in force,” according to Deputy Prime Minister Marles.
“I think if we take a step back, when we made this announcement last year, in the last 12 months, we’ve seen a power of work be undertaken by us here in Australia, but in the UK and very much in the US as well, the very first step was to see an increase in the number of nuclear-powered submarine visits to Australia.
“There’s an LA Class submarine at HMAS Stirling right now, the USS Annapolis, and we have seen that increased tempo of submarines come to Australia.
“If you look at the legislation, which went through the Congress last year, this was groundbreaking legislation undertaken by both the Congress and the US administration, which provides for the submarines to be transferred to Australia. The US government has been meeting its commitments and continues to do so.
“Even in the news of the budget, which they have put forward this week, is contained an $11 billion commitment over the next five years to grow the industrial base in the US, which is obviously very important.
“There is absolutely a rock-solid commitment to Australia. And that’s a commitment which has been reiterated by the US government, and it forms part of a commitment that the United States is making not only to Australia but also to the UK as part of the trilateral AUKUS agreement.
“When you look at all the work that’s been done over the course of the last 12 months from all three governments, it speaks to the ongoing commitment which all of us have to meet the time frames within the AUKUS arrangement.
“We’ve reached an agreement about what our contribution will be, and that agreement stands. And when you look at that agreement, when you look at the fact that this budget reflects a reality of the tightness of the industrial base today, but looking forward, which is actually when we will be receiving the Virginia Class submarines, sees an increase in the American commitment to their own industrial base. They are living up to the agreement which we all reached a year ago.”
As the world faces an uncertain and unstable future, the US will need a capable partner such as Australia, Mr Marles said.
“We live in a world which is challenging, where the future is not easy to see. It’s precisely in that context that obviously we are seeking to increase our own naval capability through the acquisition of a nuclear-powered submarine capability,” he said.
“Does it remain part of or in the interests of the United States, its future strategic interest for Australia to have this capability? The answer is clearly yes.
“Indeed, the more uncertain the world is, the more America is going to need a capable partner, which only adds to the weight of seeing this agreement fulfilled.”
Speaking to 2SM radio on 14 March, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reaffirmed the federal government’s confidence in the AUKUS commitment with any incoming US administration.
“Across the board, I, of course, met with Republican and Democrat senators and Congress people, and there was extraordinary support for AUKUS,” he said.
“This proposal, this is an agreement between our two great nations, not an agreement between two individuals.
“So, whilst the election in the United States is, of course, a decision for the people of the United States, I’m very confident that regardless of the outcome, this agreement will stay in place.”
