Step it up: Trump 2.0 will expect increased defence spending

For almost the entirety of our history, Australia’s relationship with the strategic reality of the Indo-Pacific has been viewed through two distinct yet competing paradigms.

The first being our relationship with a strategic benefactor in a larger, “great and powerful friend” – historically, the British Empire and more recently, the United States; and the second, the realisation that we are a comparatively small fish in a big pond.

As a result, Australia has always sought to play the role of a “loyal deputy”, committed to maintaining the global and regional order of the era. This investment has also seen us seek to meet the obligations required of us, in terms of both “blood and treasure” across the world.

In recent history, this has seen governments from both sides of the aisle seek to ensure Australia’s defence spending remained at or as close to 2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) as possible.

The importance of this spending has only become more important as the world and the Indo-Pacific have increasingly become a hotbed of peer and near-peer competition, ambition and machinations.

Driven in large part by the rise of the People’s Republic of China and the re-emergence of Russia as a major global power, flanked by a growing constellation of rising powers across the Indo-Pacific, each with their own competing designs and ambitions for the region.

Further compounding the challenges to the American-led global order is the increasing belligerence of non-state and asymmetric actors, like the Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthis who pose a threat to the global commons, all of which serve to place increasing pressure on the United States.

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Enter President-elect, Donald Trump, who has pulled off a startling political comeback to be decisively elected as the 47th President of the United States on a platform of untangling American involvement in costly, foreign “wars of choice”.

Front and centre of this foreign policy is an insistence that America’s allies need to do more and spend more when it comes to their own defence, building on the first Trump administration’s record between 2016 and 2020.

Just for the record though, President-elect Trump’s attitude and approach to allies pulling their weight is nothing new, even President Barack Obama was quite pointed when confronting allies to spend more, warning Europe’s leaders, “Free riders aggravate me”.

So just keep that in mind.

However, this transactional approach to alliances has once again drawn flak from American allies across the globe and heightened the feeling of strategic anxiety in capitals across the Western world.

For Australia, the nation has long prided itself on being a “loyal deputy” and frequently punching above its weight when it comes to defence and national security.

Now while Australia has consistently sought to increase our defence spending, going back to the 2016 Defence White Paper and Integrated Investment Program through to the 2023 Defence Strategic Review, 2024 National Defence Strategy and reprioritised Integrated Investment Program, little has changed.

Raising major concerns about Australia’s security, particularly as Australian defence spending has consistently hovered around the 2 per cent of GDP, with it currently sitting at 1.99 per cent, with little in the way of major increase in material funding for the nation’s defence capabilities expected.

Indeed, the recent cancellation of the multibillion-dollar JP 9102 military satellite communications program has been cited by many as yet another example of the nation’s declining military spending that will no doubt draw the attention of Trump’s new administration.

Highlighting the growing concern sweeping Canberra’s halls of power are United States Studies Centre chief Michael Green and Strategic Analysis Australia’s Peter Jennings and Michael Shoebridge.

Don’t believe the hype, it isn’t all bad news

Speaking to Ben Packham of The Australian, Green explained that while there would be an expectation that Australia step up its defence spending, it isn’t all bad news, “They’re going to come in on day one and want to accelerate cooperation with Australia on defence. If there is an issue, frankly, it’s that the [Australian] government is going to come under pressure to spend more on defence.”

Unpacking this further, Jennings – in a piece for Strategic Analysis Australia titled, The Hulk is back, and he won’t like our defence weakness – said, “We remember the hysterics from Trump’s first term, but the Hulk had calmer moments. Ultimately there was no weird agreement with North Korea’s ‘Little Rocket Man’; NATO got stronger; Iran was more firmly buttonholed; Israel was supported; the US did not abandon Afghanistan.”

Going further, Jennings added, “Whoever is president, Australia has strong advantages in promoting our interests in Washington and with the American people.

“Brand Australia is immensely popular – the place many Americans want to visit but never will. Australians are seen as sunny, gregarious optimists, open and frank – much like Americans imagine their best selves. As a somewhat shy pessimist, I have benefited enormously from our perceived strengths in dealing with Americans.”

Rounding out the analysis is Jennings’ colleague at Strategic Analysis Australia, Michael Shoebridge, who said, “Trump will notice that we’re pretending we can have conventional military and nuclear subs while we’re spending a shade under 2 per cent of GDP on defence.”

This will lead to an expectation by President Trump that Australia significantly step up its game, with Shoebridge adding, “And he’ll want to see us doing some heavy lifting – like building actual bases and dry docks – if we expect him to give up subs that the US Navy has too few of themselves.”

So while it isn’t all bad news, we should, as a nation, embrace the opportunity to do more for our own defence and security, because there is a real chance that even for a limited period of time, no one will come to save us.

Final thoughts

Despite the rhetoric, Australians seem reluctant at best or, indeed, even oblivious at worst that the world is increasingly becoming “multipolar” and our own home, the Indo-Pacific, in particular, is fast becoming the most hotly contested region in the world.

While the rhetoric and continued debate surrounding the nation’s increased defence spending is welcomed, the time for the debate is over, it is time for the rubber to hit the road and for real capability to be delivered in a timely manner.

However, where the conversation really needs to take place is how we can stretch every penny and maximise the value for money and capability delivered to the Australian warfighter and delivered yesterday.

If both Australian policymakers and the Australian public don’t snap out of the continuingly comforting security blanket that is the belief in the “End of History”, the nation will continue to rapidly face an uncomfortable and increasingly dangerous new reality, where we truly are no longer the masters of our own destiny.

Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..