iscover
Right now, our nation is laughably unprepared for conflict brewing in our region – and the economic, political, social and security fallout will be brutal. Whoever wins this weekend, for crying out loud, it’s time to put our heads down and get serious.
Australia’s strategic landscape is being reshaped by a “profound transformation” in the Indo-Pacific, as observers note the region is shifting “from unipolarity to multipolarity”.
Tectonic changes underpin this shift: the waning of US primacy, China’s rising assertiveness, India’s rapid economic ascent, and even global shocks like the Ukraine war.
This evolving multipolar era is redefining power and influence in the Asia–Pacific, demanding urgent attention from Canberra. The stakes are unmistakable: the Indo-Pacific is now the engine of global economic growth and strategic competition, and the way great powers interact will directly affect our future stability and prosperity.
In economic terms, three Indo-Pacific giants loom larger than ever. China alone accounts for nearly a fifth of global output and is already the world’s largest economy by purchasing-power parity. India is surging: it is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy by about 2030. Japan remains a major economic and strategic power.
Meanwhile, Russia’s small but growing influence and presence in the region, with revelations of interest around access to and the development of a joint airbase/space facility at the existing Manuhua Air Force Base on Indonesia’s Biak Island, has only served to reinforce how dramatically the regional and global balance of power has become.
These shifts mean that Australia’s exports, investment ties and supply chains are being realigned. Politically, too, old assumptions have been upended: regional alliances are deepening and diversifying (from the Quad to AUKUS), even as China’s territorial assertiveness grows and cuts closer to home.
In the midst of an election campaign, we are seeing every policy choice now has heightened implications for our prosperity and security.
For Australia, the stakes could not be higher. Experts warn that “given current trends in the regional balance of power, Australia and like-minded nations must pursue collective approaches”. According to the Sydney University-based US Studies Centre, Canberra has already signalled its commitment: through AUKUS, it has chosen to “actively bolster American power in the region” to uphold a favourable balance.
But this underlines an urgent reality for both sides of Australia’s political debate: without swift adaptation, our security and prosperity will be at risk. In this critical era of multipolar great-power rivalry, Australia must make strategic choices now to safeguard Australia’s future.
Highlighting the precarious predicament Australia finds itself in and the need for both sides of Australian politics to take the threats seriously is Andrew Tillett of The Australian Financial Review who articulated this in an analysis, titled Not fit to fight’: The blind spots in Australia’s defence capability.
The ADF is ‘not fit to fight’ but it is a symptom of broader issue
For the better part of the last decade, much of the focus of the strategic policy commentariat, the political class and media more broadly, has been focused on the declining capability of the Australian Defence Force relative to the sweeping developments and expansion of potential adversaries in the Indo-Pacific.
Demonstrating this most succinctly and decisively following the recent circumnavigation of the Australian continent by a powerful but relatively small task group from the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN), which significantly outclassed even the most modern of Australia’s “Tier One” surface combatants and revealed just how unprepared the nation is.
Highlighting this, Tillett, via Michael Shoebridge of Strategic Analysis Australia, articulated, “Australia’s Defence Force right now is not fit to fight ... The organisation’s fixation on being a fantasy force in the 2040s means if a conflict happens anytime in the next 10 years, our military hasn’t got the vital consumables of conflict (missiles, drones, torpedoes) it’ll need if a war lasts more than a few weeks.”
Unpacking this further, Shoebridge added, “It [the ADF] isn’t equipping itself with the new weapons its adversaries already have, and its tiny numbers of hugely complex, expensive ships, planes and tanks can’t be replaced unless an enemy politely pauses any war for years. In summary: Our ADF is a traditional conventionally equipped military without credible plans to supply itself in war or replace combat losses. And if there is a war, it’s likely to face adversaries who have embraced unmanned weapons in large numbers, and who do have plans to actually fight.”
Against this backdrop, it is critical to equally accept that in this environment, Australia, like many of its partners, the United States included, is largely reactive and responding to the challenges and threats posed by revisionist, autocratic powers like China, Russia, Iran and others, even nations notionally “aligned” to the West.
Tillett highlighted the challenge this poses, leveraging the Taiwan example to provide the measuring stick, saying, “If deterrence fails and China invades [Taiwan], that poses profound questions for the US and allies such as Australia. If the US is unwilling to intervene, its network of alliances in Asia with the likes of Japan will come under strain, if not break, and America’s global power would be diminished. But if the US acts, Australia would have to decide between going to war with its biggest trading partner and not supporting the US alliance.”
Yet if one was to take a straw poll of the average Australian as they walk into a polling booth, one would be hard-pressed to find the nation’s defence and national security in the top three of the respondent’s voting priorities, and one could hardly blame them when they’re predominately focused on putting food on the table, paying the bills and filling their car.
This response would undoubtedly (at least in my personal experience) mean that many people would respond with a myriad of talking points gleaned from various degrees of research, to passing messages on the nightly news about the state of the nation’s defence spending and a lack of understanding about just what is required.
Tillett hinted at this, saying, “Defence spending will rise to AU$59 billion in 2025–26 but essentially, this has been treading water for the past decade at around 2 per cent of gross domestic product – a benchmark now seen as inadequate in light of the deteriorating strategic outlook. The Trump administration has warned that Australia should be spending 3 per cent of GDP on the military because of the threat posed by China.”
“Last year, the Albanese government pledged to lift defence spending by AU$50 billion over the decade, hitting 2.33 per cent of GDP by 2033–34, but this increase is heavily back-ended, meaning the big dollars won’t start to flow until the second part of that period,” Tillett added.
And here lies the problem, successive generations of Australians, beginning with the tail end of the Boomer generation (1946–1964) through to the Zoomer generation (1997–2012) have enjoyed the largely peaceful, benevolent period in recent and indeed global history, which is often overlooked as a historic abnormality, with the trend of global norms heading back to the era of multipolarity.
Accordingly, the public consciousness is completely unprepared to confront the new reality and the requirements that the new normal will require from the Australian people and nation, and it is here that we see the state of the ADF is largely a symptom of broader and systematic factors that continue to undermine the nation’s long-term security, prosperity and stability.
Australia needs a complete ‘whole-of-nation’ overhaul
Australia has long played the role of America’s trusted deputy in the Indo-Pacific, faithfully backing US interests through every major conflict of the 20th century – a proud legacy of contributing to the alliance’s insurance policy.
For much of that time, the model served us well. During the late Cold War and into the 21st century, America carried the lion’s share of the burden, allowing Australia and its Western partners to grow “fat, rich, happy and complacent” off the back of US sacrifice on the global stage.
But the world has changed, and there’s no going back. America can no longer carry the load alone in an era defined by fierce geopolitical rivalry and the rise of competitors with serious economic, political and strategic weight.
For Australia, this demands shedding the outdated notion that our role stops at a “lazy” South Pacific. Our strategic horizon must now stretch from the east coast of Africa and the Persian Gulf, across American Samoa and deep into the South China Sea – a vast, vital arena of opportunity and challenge.
Equally, the time has come for allies like Australia to pull their weight, lighten America’s burden and seize new opportunities through bold, agile strategies and policies that build real economic, political and strategic resilience – and critically, this will require us to sharpen our own economic diversity, complexity and competitiveness.
And our region, the broader regional would more than offset the challenges of removing Beijing would serve to provide Australia with some much needed market diversity and an opportunity to build economic diversity and complexity.
This vast region is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies – India, Thailand, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Kenya and the Philippines. By 2030, it is expected to host 5 billion people with a combined GDP of US$13.13 trillion (AU$20.1 trillion). By 2050, that figure will swell to 5.7 billion people and a GDP of US$30.35 trillion (AU$46.5 trillion), fuelling an insatiable demand for raw materials, agricultural goods, financial services and premium products – markets Australia is uniquely placed to serve.
US geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan has warned that a deglobalised world risks fracturing into countless separate geographies, each weaker without the collective strength that once underpinned global order. While the numbers here do not capture every nation in the region, they highlight the sheer scale of opportunity right on Australia’s doorstep – distinct from our long-standing economic dependence on China.
Yet to seize this moment, Australia must move beyond outdated assumptions. Nations across the Indo-Pacific are increasingly recognising that building resilience, prosperity and influence demands a “whole-of-nation” effort – a coordinated drive across government, industry and society to strengthen economic capacity, social cohesion and strategic weight.
These nations yearn for lasting peace, stability and growth. Australia now has a rare chance to step up as a trusted strategic benefactor and a linchpin of regional order – forging a Pax Australis, underpinned by a renewed and reimagined Pax Americana.
After all, as Shoebridge explained to Tillett, in an era where our adversaries are leveraging the power of the “whole of nation”, we have to acknowledge that “The future of warfare, like warfare through time, involves production” and Australia needs to play catch-up, rapidly.
Final thoughts
Australia stands at a crossroads.
The world is shifting at breakneck speed and the Indo-Pacific is now the fiercest arena of global competition. Right on our doorstep, nations like China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, Japan and South Korea are redrawing the regional map. The pace is relentless and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
We can’t afford to drift along clinging to old habits and short-term thinking. The hard truth is this: without bold reform and serious national investment, we risk sliding into a future where Australia is weaker, poorer and dangerously exposed.
But this isn’t a moment for fear – it’s a moment for leadership.
We have the talent, the resources and the grit. What we need now is the courage and vision to act. The choice before us is stark: do we settle for the sidelines, or do we step up as a truly independent force in a multipolar world?
This is bigger than defence, bigger than diplomacy. It’s about securing our industries, inspiring our communities and building a nation resilient enough to thrive through the turbulence ahead.
The world won’t wait. Our future won’t wait. It’s time for Australia to seize this moment – and forge our own destiny.
Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at
Stephen Kuper
Steve has an extensive career across government, defence industry and advocacy, having previously worked for cabinet ministers at both Federal and State levels.
