iscover
For generations, Australians have been told that we are the “Lucky Country” based on Donald Horne’s book of the same name, but once again, his true meaning behind the term is coming back to bite us at a time when we can’t afford to be a “second-rate people who share its luck” and need to be far more assertive over our future.
Successive generations of Australian leaders and Australians have been enamoured by what has become the nation’s pseudo-foundational myth: the myth that Australia is the “Lucky Country”.
This myth sold the story that Australia is a nation that had become one of the world’s great democracies, immensely prosperous and secure in the world by some preternatural foresight and gift of its people and its leaders, and that these conditions would endure until the heat death of the universe.
The irony is, Donald Horne was repulsed by the very perversion of his term, the “Lucky Country”, by both the nation’s political class and the public who became enamoured with the comforting narrative that has become an inescapable part of the public and political consciousness to this day.
Indeed, when questioned about his view of the national myth that had become of the “Lucky Country” moniker, he responded, “Australia is a lucky country run mainly by second-rate people who share its luck. It lives on other people’s ideas, and, although its ordinary people are adaptable, most of its leaders (in all fields) so lack curiosity about the events that surround them that they are often taken by surprise.”
This criticism and revulsion was only further reinforced in his follow-up 1976 book, Death of the Lucky Country, in which he said, “When I invented the phrase in 1964 to describe Australia, I said: ‘Australia is a lucky country run by second-rate people who share its luck.’ I didn’t mean that it had a lot of material resources … I had in mind the idea of Australia as a [British] derived society whose prosperity in the great age of manufacturing came from the luck of its historical origins … In the lucky style we have never ‘earned’ our democracy. We simply went along with some British habits...
“I have had to sit through the most appalling rubbish as successive generations misapplied this phrase.”
But what does all of this have to do with the current security environment Australia finds itself in?
Well, Australia’s most senior spook, Director-General of the Office of National Intelligence (ONI), Andrew Shearer, had thrown back to Horne’s own criticisms of the “Lucky Country” moniker in a recent address to an Australia–Japan business conference in Perth.
At the core of Shearer’s criticism is a warning that the complacency that the “Lucky Country” myth has entrenched it within the public consciousness will only serve to harm the nation in the face of our current geopolitical circumstances.
Lucky Country myth is leaving us weakened
Shearer’s pointed warning to both the Australian public and its elected officials comes at a time when many Australians from across the socioeconomic spectrum continue to feel biting cost-of-living pressures, dislocation, social and community atomisation and diminishing opportunity for themselves and their children.
Or more simply put, the “Lucky Country” doesn’t feel quite as lucky anymore.
Now while Shearer doesn’t provide prescriptions for these challenges, he does identify that competitor nations, particularly the People’s Republic of China, are leveraging the long-term socio-political apathy and cultural inertia that has become intertwined with the “Lucky Country” myth to their tactical and strategic advantage.
Shearer told the gathered audience, “The rules and norms that once gave us stability and supported unprecedented global prosperity are fading ... Democracies everywhere are now grappling with a central paradox: economic openness remains essential to our productivity, efficiency, long-term living standards and our way of life.”
“That same openness now gives adversaries the means to turn access into leverage and interdependence into malign influence,” Shearer added.
This weaponisation of the post-Second World War economic, political and strategic system, or as has become common parlance – the “global rules-based order”, has come as an abrupt shock to many within the Australian political and strategic commentariat and even more so to the Australian public who have been conditioned to believe that the good times will simply never end.
The issues go far beyond the external “pacing” competitors or threats, with very real domestic challenges increasingly shaping global political considerations as well, something Shearer hinted at, saying, “Confidence in multilateral institutions is weakening. The military balance is shifting against the West and deterrence is eroding. Our adversaries are exploiting our preference for restraint and de-escalation and leveraging coercion, cyber attacks, sabotage and disinformation to test us without triggering outright conflict.”
Shearer went further, adding, “These tactics exploit the openness of our economies, societies and polities, and are very hard for liberal democracies to counter. They have become the day-to-day reality for governments, but also increasingly, for businesses.”
But where his analysis falls short is in his unwillingness to clearly call out the pervasive and almost terminal cult of apathy, naivety and disconnection from the realities of the new world that dominates Australian policymaking and public life, or put more simply, the enduring myth of the “Lucky Country”.
And herein lies a problem that is only exacerbated by the accelerating collapse of the post-Second World War “global rules-based order”.
A world of ’malign influences’ and a ’defunct’ world order
It is no secret that the world has rapidly evolved, even from the 2010s, where much of the world continued to believe in the post-Cold War delusion of the “End of History” as set out by Francis Fukuyama, while the world’s revisionist powers began to exert their influence and begin to unveil their ambitions.
Shearer’s analysis of the global shifting balance of power, influence and for lack of a better term, control over the global organisations, commons and seeming pursuit of a parallel global order, serves to inescapably create a world of “malign influences”.
Shearer reinforced this in his comments, adding, “rules and norms that once gave us stability and supported unprecedented global prosperity are fading”.
Reinforcing these comments is former secretary of the Department of Home Affairs, Mike Pezzullo who told Noah Yim of The Australian, “Historians will judge the period from the mid-2000s to now as being marked by the rise of authoritarian powers which saw their chance to advance their strategic, political, and territorial objectives...
“China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have rendered the postwar security order defunct ... Were that not to be the case, the global security environment would largely not be characterised by the risks and threats of which Mr Shearer spoke.”
So in the face of this now “defunct” global order, Australia’s enduring naivety and blissful ignorance embodied by the myth of the “Lucky Country” is now invariably causing more harm at a time when the nation and its people are seeking greater surety in an increasingly dangerous world.
Final thoughts
This brings me to an unavoidable truth: Australia, and those who shape its policies, must take full responsibility for defending the nation and its interests, seriously and decisively.
Nothing else in public policy comes close in importance.
Not forgiving 20 per cent of HECS debt. Not clinging to self-defeating climate and environmental policies. Not even the sacred pillars of Medicare or the NDIS.
If that means challenging and, indeed, slaying a few sacred cows, so be it: it’s now essential.
Australia needs to urgently get serious about developing the independent capability to defend our security and national interests, and to determine how we operate, both on our own and in partnership with the United States and our regional partners.
To achieve that, both government and ordinary Australians will need to confront some hard, uncomfortable truths if we are genuinely serious about securing our future.
First, the Indo-Pacific has become the world’s most hotly contested region. China, India, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam are flexing new economic, political and military power, while Japan and South Korea are reasserting themselves. Competition isn’t just on our doorstep anymore, it’s already here, and it’s here to stay.
Second, without a sustained push in investment, reform and long-term planning, we risk far more than simply falling behind. We risk being left in the wake of our neighbours’ growing momentum. If we fail to act now, the next generation of Australians could inherit a nation overshadowed by wealthier, stronger and more influential regional powers.
For too long we’ve chased easy wins and reactive policies. Since Federation, governments of all stripes have preferred the short-term political pay-off over the long-term national prize. But the Indo-Pacific is shifting beneath our feet, and business as usual will no longer do. We need to think ahead, seize opportunities and blunt emerging threats before they overtake us.
The real question isn’t whether these challenges are coming, they’re already here. The question now is when will Canberra finally deliver a bold, detailed national plan that unites industry and the public behind a shared vision for Australia’s future. When will we see a genuine strategy to keep our nation resilient amid sharpening great power rivalry?
With China expanding its reach and influence across the region, Australia faces a stark choice: sit back as a spectator or step up as a shaper of the Indo-Pacific’s future. The decisions we make today will determine whether Australia thrives in this new era – or gets swept aside by it.
Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at
Stephen Kuper
Steve has an extensive career across government, defence industry and advocacy, having previously worked for cabinet ministers at both Federal and State levels.
