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The AUKUS nuclear submarine program is facing a major threat, not from geopolitical rivals but from a critical shortage of skilled welders in both Australia and the United States, a leading industry body has warned.
In a blunt warning issued today, Weld Australia has declared that without urgent action to address the skills crisis, the multibillion-dollar trilateral defence initiative could collapse before a single submarine is delivered.
At the heart of the problem is a chronic shortage of qualified welding professionals – an issue plaguing both nations. The United States is currently producing only 1.2 submarines a year, well short of the 2.3 annually needed to meet its domestic naval requirements and uphold the AUKUS commitment to Australia.
The American Welding Society estimates the US will face a shortfall of 330,000 welders by 2028, with approximately 82,500 new positions to be filled each year.
Geoff Crittenden, CEO of Weld Australia, said, “This is not just a workforce challenge. It’s a full-blown capability crisis. The US doesn’t have enough welders to meet its own naval shipbuilding needs, let alone build submarines for Australia. If we don’t tackle this now, AUKUS will fail.”
Australia is in equally dire straits. “At present, around half of Australia’s welding workshops are operating below 80 per cent capacity, primarily due to a lack of skilled labour,” Crittenden said. “We’ve been raising the alarm for more than a decade. The fact that so little has been done is not just frustrating – it’s dangerous.”
He warned that Australia is on track to face a deficit of at least 70,000 welders by 2030. “This is a perfect storm. AUKUS is a once-in-a-generation opportunity that demands more than just investment in submarines and infrastructure – it demands investment in people,” Crittenden said. “Without that, we’re looking at delays, budget blowouts, or the possible failure of the program.”
Weld Australia is calling for immediate government action to shore up the nation’s sovereign industrial capability. The organisation has long advocated for the development of a coordinated national welding strategy, including increased funding for TAFE, an urgent overhaul of the outdated national TAFE welding curriculum, and the establishment of a dedicated Shipbuilding Welding Academy.
“The national TAFE welding curriculum hasn’t been updated since 1995. It doesn’t meet modern industry requirements,” Crittenden said. “Many graduates leave TAFE without the fundamental skills to interpret welding procedures, set up machines or weld to Australian Standards – let alone contribute to a nuclear submarine program.”
He acknowledged the federal government’s recent investment in a world-class submarine training facility in South Australia as a positive step. “It’s encouraging to see serious infrastructure backing this once-in-a-generation undertaking,” he said. “But we are starting from behind. Without proper workforce planning and training reform, even this welcome investment risks falling short.”
Weld Australia says it is ready to partner with the Australian Submarine Agency and TAFEs around the country to close the skills gap and ensure Australia can train the welders required for the program’s success.
“If we want sovereign capability, we have to build it – not import it,” Crittenden said. “AUKUS isn’t just about submarines; it’s about national security. And we can’t build that on empty promises – or an empty workforce.”
Stephen Kuper
Steve has an extensive career across government, defence industry and advocacy, having previously worked for cabinet ministers at both Federal and State levels.
