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Defence operates in an environment where geopolitical disruption is the baseline operating condition. Managing property, facilities and infrastructure across sovereign and offshore locations, supporting capability requirements that shift with government priorities, and maintaining operational readiness when global supply chains face persistent volatility requires abandoning the traditional rhythm of annual planning cycles and multi-year forecasts.
"The capability to respond continuously to disruption is now essential. This means understanding which risks can be controlled, which tools help teams adapt, and how to structure decisions when timelines compress and certainty disappears," says Geoff Camp, Head of Defence at JLL.
Supply chains have become strategic vulnerabilities
Supply chain resilience is one controllable risk that directly impacts operational capability and force readiness. When critical building components face disruption, delays cascade across training schedules, maintenance programs and facility availability.
Consider common building materials like PVC and polyethylene, which are oil in solid form, and used in plumbing pipes and electric cabling. When crude oil prices spiked in March/April 2026, suppliers increased PVC and polyethylene prices by approximately 30%. Unlike diesel prices which eventually stabilised as they usually do with crude oil price fluctuations, these material costs have barely budged because the escalation reflects reduced global petrochemical capacity. For a fixed-budget, multi-year project based on costs estimated 18 months ago, the impact can be significant.
From elevators and mechanical systems to structural steel and glass, critical building components at every level face disruption. Raw materials such as copper, steel and insulation are equally exposed to shipping delays, energy price volatility and supplier insolvency.
"Understanding where critical materials originate, along with flow-on effects to shipping routes, has become essential," says Bryan Froud, Director at JLL Consulting. "Agencies managing estates with remote sites and limited local contractor capacity must be particularly nimble." For Defence, this complexity multiplies when managing offshore infrastructure where logistics chains extend across multiple jurisdictions.
Global experience addressing the challenge
Solving these challenges requires global perspective combined with local execution. Over 11 years serving the Australian Defence estate, JLL has combined local knowledge with global reach across the aerospace and defence sector. We manage more than 450 million square metres of space globally and work with nine of the top 10 aerospace and defence contractors.
We actively manage volatility in defence supply chains and international estate portfolios daily. In Singapore, we provide end-to-end facilities and operational management of the Sembawang Living-in Accommodation properties for Navy personnel. In Malaysia, we upgraded the Sandakan Memorial Park. In Greece, we support the Department of Veterans Affairs with a memorial trail in Lemnos. Solutions developed for one jurisdiction transfer directly to others.
JLL's resilience framework
Managing volatility across these diverse contexts has shaped JLL's scenario-based resilience framework for the Defence estate. Rather than forecasting a single outcome, we map multiple futures against indicators such as GDP movement, inflation and geopolitical risk, then identify triggers and response pathways for each scenario.
At the project level, this becomes the 'four-S' framework: stockpile (forward procurement of critical components when supply chains tighten), substitute (identifying alternative materials or suppliers when primary sources become unavailable), salvage (using reclaimed materials to bypass constrained supply chains while advancing sustainability), and suspend (strategic deferral of non-critical work to preserve resources and scheduling flexibility).
This framework responds to a fundamental shift: decision windows are compressing. Froud describes working with an organisation whose lease doesn't expire until 2032, yet given four to five-year build timelines, the decision about whether to stay or relocate needs making now. "The reaction is often, 'Didn't we just make a decision?' Yes, but you have to do it again."
For Defence, where decisions must account for capability requirements, security considerations and sovereign constraints, this compression creates additional complexity. Organisations managing it successfully treat strategic planning as continuous rather than annual.
What Defence must do now
This continuous approach translates into specific actions. The path forward requires scenario planning that maps multiple futures against operational requirements; compressed review cycles that recognise conditions shift faster than traditional planning accommodates; forward procurement strategies for critical components; and visibility into where materials originate and which shipping routes face vulnerability.
Defence must also connect estate decisions to capability outcomes and structure contracts to preserve flexibility when conditions change. Organisations that fail to adapt will face growing capability gaps that translate directly to operational risk.
"It's not about predicting the future but imagining multiple futures so you're prepared if one lands," Froud explains. For Defence, where operational readiness depends on estate resilience, the cost of inaction is measured in degraded capability.