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A tipping of the political balance in the United States could trigger AUKUS “inertia”, a US policy analyst has warned.
According to University of Sydney professor Simon Jackman, results of the upcoming 2022 US mid-term elections could have serious implications on the delivery of key defence commitments promised under the AUKUS agreement.
With Reuters/Ipsos polling placing US President Joe Biden’s current approval rating at 40 per cent, Jackman notes the Democrats, which hold the majority in the Congress and Senate, could suffer “big losses”.
As such, AUKUS progress could be disrupted if a Republican majority complicates negotiations with a potential Albanese-led Labor government.
“There are some very hard yards to do with respect to AUKUS,” Jackman told Sky News.
“There are many ways in [Washington DC] that inertia can take hold in the bureaucracy, in the armed forces themselves, but also up on Capitol Hill.
“It’s another key avenue where we need things to go right in order for the AUKUS agenda to be delivered.”
However, Jackman said history suggests such differences would be managed, particularly in light of strong internal support for the agreement within the “Friends of Australia” caucus in Congress.
“Indeed, a subset of it has renamed itself the ‘AUKUS Caucus’ and I think there’s a real bipartisan effort to keep that on track,” he added.
“Nonetheless, a new government in Australia with much stronger social democratic credentials than a conservative government, [could make for] some interesting first couple of meetings.”
Fears of a looming disruption come amid commitments from the Commonwealth government to deliver nuclear-powered submarines promised under AUKUS ahead of schedule.
This pledge was renewed by Minister for Defence Peter Dutton in an interview on Monday (11 April).
“The submarines I’ll have more to say about that later in the year, but that is a very prospective deal, and it will mean a much shorter timeline than has been projected or speculated on over the course of the last couple of months,” he said.
“The US and the UK get 100 per cent what’s going on in the Indo-Pacific. They want additional firepower here; they want the deterrence that we want because all of us together, want to maintain peace and to deter any act of aggression by China or anyone else in the Indo-Pacific over the next few years and decades.”
The Commonwealth government’s Nuclear-Powered Submarine Task Force is currently consulting with stakeholders in the US and UK to devise a strategy for the procurement of the SSNs.
The group’s considerations include requirements for design, construction, maintenance, infrastructure, industry capacity, nuclear safety, environmental protection, crewing and training.
The task force will also advise on building timeframes, costs and supply needs.
The AUKUS agreement was recently expanded to include the development of hypersonic and counter-hypersonic weapons systems.
[Related: AUKUS expands into hypersonic, provides submarine update]
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