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Amid mounting regional and global tensions, China has announced plans for a range of new war games near the disputed island of Taiwan, bringing together a range of capabilities from across the People’s Liberation Army – as the rising superpower continues to flex its muscles and challenge the regional ‘rules based order’.
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Like every ascendant economic, political and strategic power, China has used its period of rapid industrialisation and economic expansion to begin establishing its position within the broader global context – fuelled by a long memory of a "century of humiliation" at the hands of Western imperialism, finally ending with the successful Communist Revolution in 1949, China and its political leaders have dedicated the nation to establishing a new era of Chinese global primacy.
As China's position within the global order has evolved and its ambitions towards the Indo-Pacific, in particular, have become increasingly apparent, the Chinese government, driven by an extremely ambitious leader, President Xi Jinping, has identified a number of factors of both 'internal' and 'external' concern for the rising superpower's status.
Central to these 'internal' focuses is the 'rogue' province of Taiwan – separated by the Chinese Civil War in the late 1940s which has long served as a potential flash point between China and the US, particularly as China's ambitions and willingness to use force to intimidate Indo-Pacific neighbours becomes the new status quo.
The US has moved in recent months to directly confront the increasing assertiveness of the Chinese regime, both in terms of the ongoing trade war between the two powerhouses, the renewed American presence in the Indo-Pacific, including freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, and the growing number of rearmament and capability modernisation deals struck between the US and Taiwan.
China's recently released Defence White Paper, China's National Defense in the New Era, recognises America's resurgence and has moved swiftly to characterise it as a period of "intensified competition among major countries, significantly increased its defence expenditure, pushed for additional capacity in nuclear, outer space, cyber and missile defence, and undermined global strategic stability".
The Taiwan issue and American interference
In response to a number of recent arms deals approved by the White House, namely the approval of a US$8 billion deal to supply Taiwan with up to 66 advanced Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter jets, a US$223.6 million deal to provide Stinger surface-to-air missiles and a US$2 billion deal to supply the Taiwanese Army with 102 M1A2T Abrams main battle tanks, China has issued strong rebuke's to both Taipei and Washington.
With the new Defence White Paper clearly articulating the issue of Taiwan's independence as a matter of internal security, part of a larger suite of 'internal' issues, the nation has committed to using force to resolve the issue, including against external influences, read the US and its regional partners, as a means of supporting China's primary national defence aims.
China remains resolute regarding the issue of Taiwan, stating: "China has the firm resolve and the ability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and will never allow the secession of any part of its territory by anyone, any organisation or any political party by any means at any time. We make no promise to renounce the use of force, and reserve the option of taking all necessary measures. This is by no means targeted at our compatriots in Taiwan, but at the interference of external forces and the very small number of 'Taiwan independence' separatists and their activities. The PLA will resolutely defeat anyone attempting to separate Taiwan from China and safeguard national unity at all costs." (Emphasis added).
In a sign of China's growing concerns that Taiwan may move to formally declare independence should the situation in Hong Kong boil over, resulting in Chinese military units actively engaging pro-democracy protesters, the rising superpower has kicked-off an expansive war games, cordoning a 3,000 square kilometre zone in the East China Sea.
The Chinese defence ministry and maritime administration have issued warnings for all vessels not to enter the waters off the east coast of China's Zhejiang province – the drills are expected to involve a range of units active with the East Sea Fleet, including Type 052D guided-missile destroyers, similar to the US Navy's Arleigh Burke and Royal Australian Navy's Hobart Class vessels.
The naval task group is also expected to include Type 056 corvettes and Type 054A guided missile frigates, and comes just months after a series of major exercises in the Taiwan Strait ahead of the island nation's elections and recent revelations that China's second aircraft carrier had recently returned from builders sea trials, including aircraft operations as the nation continues to ramp up its capacity to act as a great power.
Further compounding matters is the recent revelation that China had begun the early stages of carrier integration for its domestically designed and manufactured J-20 fifth-generation fighter aircraft, marking a major step in the superpower's pursuit of a contemporary, highly capable fixed-wing naval aviation capability that could directly counter American and allied forces in the region.
Questions for Australia
Despite Australia’s enduring commitment to the Australia-US alliance, serious questions remain for Australia in the new world order of President Donald Trump’s America, as a number of allies have been targeted by the maverick President for relying on the US for their security against larger state-based actors, which has seen the President actively pressuring key allies, particularly NATO allies, to renegotiate the deals.
Enhancing Australia’s capacity to act as an independent power, incorporating great power-style strategic economic, diplomatic and military capability serves as a powerful symbol of Australia’s sovereignty and evolving responsibilities in supporting and enhancing the security and prosperity of Indo-Pacific Asia. Shifting the public discussion away from the default Australian position of "it is all a little too difficult, so let’s not bother" will provide unprecedented economic, diplomatic, political and strategic opportunities for the nation.
However, as events continue to unfold throughout the region and China continues to throw its economic, political and strategic weight around, can Australia afford to remain a secondary power or does it need to embrace a larger, more independent role in an era of increasing great power competition?
Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia's future role and position in the US alliance structure and the Indo-Pacific more broadly in the comments section below, or get in touch with
Stephen Kuper
Steve has an extensive career across government, defence industry and advocacy, having previously worked for cabinet ministers at both Federal and State levels.
