We have to accept that diplomacy does not always win against unreasonable adversaries. The current authoritarian regime, led by supreme leader and armed forces commander-in-chief Ali Khamenei in Tehran for the last 36 years, has undertaken the production of ballistic missiles and nuclear payloads as a key national goal.
Behind the scenes, Iran has waged a shadow war of intermediary terrorist groups against its neighbours such as Saudi Arabia in the Middle East to influence the region.
The deception has now fallen as air strikes from F-35 fighter jets lanced into Iran and the forward-deployed Israeli Defense Forces teams targeted crucial missile manufacturing and nuclear enrichment facilities in the country.
The final straw occurring earlier in June with Iran being declared to be in breach of its non-proliferation obligations by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The agency has detailed that Iran did not provide “full and timely cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple undeclared locations in Iran”.
In response, the country has announced it would open a new enrichment site and upgrade centrifuges at its Fordow nuclear facility in pursuit of producing highly enriched uranium for weapons.
And thus, the stage has been set for Israel to open pre-emptive strikes against Iran.
“Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival. This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says in a public speech.
“For decades, the ‘Tyrants of Tehran’ have brazenly, openly, called for Israel’s destruction. They’ve backed up their genocidal rhetoric with a program to develop nuclear weapons.
“In recent years, Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs … In recent months, Iran has taken steps … to weaponise this enriched uranium.
“If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. It could be a year. It could be within a few months; less than a year.
“We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear weaponisation program. We targeted Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz. We targeted Iran’s leading nuclear scientists working on the uranium bomb. We also struck at the heart of Iran’s ballistic missile program.
“Last year, Iran fired 300 ballistic missiles at Israel. Each of these missiles carries a tonne of explosives and threatens the lives of hundreds of people. Soon, those missiles could carry a nuclear payload, threatening the lives, not of hundreds, but of millions.
“Iran is gearing up to produce 10,000s of those ballistic missiles within three years … This is an intolerable threat. It, too, must be stopped.
“I want to assure the civilised world: we will not let the world’s most dangerous regime get the world’s most dangerous weapons. And Iran plans to give those weapons, nuclear weapons, to its terrorist proxies. That would make the nightmare of nuclear terrorism all too real. The increasing range of Iran’s ballistic missiles would bring that nuclear nightmare to the cities of Europe and, eventually, to America.
“Our action will help make the world a much safer place … It is clear that Iran is just buying for time. It refuses to agree to this basic requirement of peaceful nations. That is why we have no choice but to act and act now.”
Our action will help make the world a much safer place … It is clear that Iran is just buying for time. It refuses to agree to this basic requirement of peaceful nations. That is why we have no choice but to act and act now.”
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
This series of strikes on Iran speaks to the wider issue that Western allies must now recognise – there is an authoritarian opposing alliance that we cannot ignore between Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.
Acutely, Israel knows the threat a nuclear-armed Iran would present on the world stage and the vast increase in intimidation that such a change would give to the opposing world order of authoritarian regimes.
Like Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, for decades, the world has pretended that this polar opposite group of countries are working for the benefit of everyone.
They join the United Nations and have signed international treaties of trade to publicly espouse peace and friendship while building larger swords behind their backs. In reality, the age of open deceit is long over.
By taking direct action against rogue states, such as Iran, the world is calling out the behaviour of these countries who have been steadily sharpening themselves to take on the established democratic order since the end of World War II.
These two-faced regimes conduct state-sponsored grey zone warfare such as economically damaging cyber attacks, intellectual property theft of defence equipment and shadow fleet shipping of oil and restricted military components.
Russia deploys troops to Ukraine because it knows having Ukraine join NATO provides too much of a strategic hole in its defence. That strategic hole is a fatal blow to Russia if and when it has to make direct military action against Europe.
China builds its military capability in open secret because it knows that massive military force is required to conquer neighbours, hold Taiwan and usher in its own global hegemony.
“China seeks to become a hegemonic power in Asia. No doubt. It hopes to dominate and control too many parts of this vibrant and vital region,” US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says at the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore earlier this year.
“Through its massive military build-up and growing willingness to use military force to achieve its goals, including grey zone tactics and hybrid warfare, China has demonstrated that it wants to fundamentally alter the region’s status quo.
“We cannot look away, and we cannot ignore it. China’s behaviour towards its neighbours and the world is a wake-up call. And an urgent one.
“China uses its vast and sophisticated cyber capabilities to steal technology and attack critical infrastructure in your countries and in the United States as well. These actions not only compromise our countries but endanger the lives of our citizens.
“In the South China Sea, China harasses its neighbours, many of which are here in the room today. China seeks to intimidate you in your own waters. We’ve all seen the videos and pictures of water cannons and ship-to-ship collisions, and illegal boardings at sea. We’re also seeing the illegal seizing and militarising of lands in the South China Sea.
“These actions reveal a lack of respect for neighbours, and they challenge sovereignty, freedom of navigation and overflight. We are watching very closely China’s destabilising actions. And any unilateral attempt to change the status quo in the South China Sea and the First Island Chain by force or coercion is unacceptable.
“Every day you see it. China’s military harasses Taiwan. These activities have been paired with China’s rapid military modernisation and build-up, including huge investments in nuclear weapons, hypersonics and amphibious assault capabilities.
“It has to be clear to all that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. We know. It’s public that Xi has ordered his military to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027. The PLA is building the military needed to do it. Training for it every day. And rehearsing for the real deal. Admiral Paparo has spoken very clearly about this on multiple occasions.
“We do not seek to dominate or strangle China. To encircle or provoke … But we must ensure that China cannot dominate us, or our allies and partners. Maintaining the status quo requires strength. That’s just a rational, common sense goal that all should be able to live with.
“If deterrence fails and if called upon by my Commander in Chief, we are prepared to do what the Department of Defense does best, fight and win, decisively.”
Unfortunately, Australia continues to push forward down the road to irrelevancy with public statements of moral high grounding and ineffective calls for peace.
Iran will not abandon its nuclear enrichment program, just as the People’s Republic of China cannot abandon its military and grey zone warfare if it hopes to achieve global dominance.
Israel cannot live under a brewing cloud of Iranian nuclear weapons being developed next door, just as the United States of America cannot leave the military advance of the PRC unchecked and uncontested.
Australia’s pleas for countries to “stop the violence” are comparable to shouting into the void.
Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles, speaking at the Defending Australia 2025 Summit in June says Australia is concerned about the conflicts happening in the Middle East.
“We are concerned about the escalation of the conflict that is going on now in the Middle East and we do believe it is really important that we see a focus, an emphasis on dialogue and diplomacy,” he says.
“Now, to be clear, we completely understand the threat that is represented by Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program as not just a threat to the Middle East, as a threat to the peace and stability of the world.
“The Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore a couple of weeks ago, President Macron spoke very eloquently and forcefully about the threat that Iran’s program represents.
“So, we’re under no illusions when we say that we do not want to see an escalation of what’s going on to some broader conflict, but we’re under no illusions of what the Iranian program represents.”
