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Following a successful shoot down of Beijing’s spy balloon off the east coast of the United States, firebrand US Senator Marco Rubio has warned of Beijing’s intent and motivations behind the mission — spelling major issues for the US-led world order.
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The Second World War marked a major shift in the global balance of power and the beginning of the end of imperial dominance across the globe. This global shift in power was cemented by two key events, the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 and the nuclear strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, transforming the world forever — underpinned by an unrivalled industrial power developed through the inter-war and war years, it is an indisputable fact that much of the peace, prosperity and stability of the post-Second World War paradigm came as a direct result of the US-led global order.
By putting an end to the often-ancient rivalries between varying imperial powers, the United States, through its post-war might, guaranteed the freedom of the seas and promoted an explosion of free trade across the globe, paving the way for the modern, interconnected global economy and period of innovation, prosperity and stability we enjoy today.
However, over recent years, the post-Second World War order has come under assault both directly and indirectly — as emerging powers like China and India, backed by established powers, like a resurgent and increasingly belligerent Russia, begin to build out rival economic, political and strategic networks and systems to challenge the world order and directly undermine the legitimacy and reputation of the United States and the post-war order.
Events in recent days had further compounded a growing concern about the long-term viability, stability and continuing commitment of the United States as the world’s pre-eminent global superpower following revelations that Beijing had successfully deployed a surveillance balloon, which traversed the continental United States on an intelligence-gathering mission, conducting reconnaissance over some of America’s most sensitive military installations, including nuclear missile facilities for a week before the US responded.
Following revelations that the US Air Force was finally given approvals to shoot down the high-altitude surveillance balloon off the east coast of the United States — a senior US defense official has provided details about the US tactical and strategic thinking leading up to the shootdown: “On Wednesday, President Biden gave his authorization to take down the Chinese surveillance balloon as soon as the mission could be accomplished without undue risk to U.S. civilians under the balloon’s path.
“Military commanders determined that there was undue risk of debris causing harm to civilians while the balloon was over land. As a result, they developed a plan to down the balloon once it was over water in U.S. territorial airspace. That mission has now been successfully completed. At the direction of the president, the US military, at 2:39 p.m. this afternoon, shot down the high-altitude surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina and within U.S. territorial airspace.
“Fighter aircraft from Langley Air Force Base in Virginia fired a single missile into the balloon, causing it to crash into the ocean. In terms of some of the specific detail, this was the first available opportunity to successfully bring down this surveillance balloon in a way that would not pose a threat to the safety of Americans, which our military assessed to be the case when it was approximately six nautical miles off our cost,” the US defense official detailed.
Despite this, the Biden administration has received flak over its handling of the situation, with US Senator and member of the Senate Intelligence Committee Marco Rubio has lashed out at Beijing’s excuse and raised questions about the capacity of the United States to remain as the world’s pre-eminent superpower, if not from an actual sense, from a psychological sense.
They did it on purpose
“They did this on purpose. They understood that it was going to be spotted, they knew the US government would have to reveal it, that people were going to see it over the sky. And the message they were trying to send is what they believe internally, and that is that the United States is a once-great superpower that’s hollowed out, it’s in decline,” Senator Rubio explained to the US ABC network, highlighting a major shift in the way not only the world views the United States, but increasingly the way its leaders and public view the nation.
Senator Rubio goes further to explain this apparent crisis of confidence: “The message [China] is trying to send the world is, ‘Look, these guys can’t even do anything about a balloon flying over US airspace.
“How can you possibly count on [the Democratic White House] if something were to happen in the Indo-Pacific region? How can you count on them if they’re not going to do anything about a balloon over US airspace? How are they going to come to the aid of Taiwan or stand with the Philippines or Japan or India when the Chinese move on their territory,” Senator Rubio added — echoing similar concerns to those raised by President Biden’s own Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who stated in December 2022: “When it comes to Russia’s war against Ukraine, if we were still in Afghanistan, it would have, I think, made much more complicated the support that we’ve been able to give and that others have been able to give Ukraine to resist and push back against the Russian aggression.”
This recognition that the United States is increasingly limited in its capacity and seemingly, willingness to respond to major provocations in a timely manner, despite the nation’s response to the Ukraine invasion, spells major trouble for the nations like Australia, which have become increasingly dependent upon the US strategic umbrella and its willingness to actively engage in the defence of the global order.
Lessons for Australia’s future strategic planning
There is no doubt that Australia’s position and responsibilities in the Indo-Pacific region will depend on the nation’s ability to sustain itself economically, strategically and politically in the face of rising regional and global competition. Despite the nation’s virtually unrivalled wealth of natural resources, agricultural and industrial potential, there is a lack of a cohesive national security strategy integrating the development of individual, yet complementary public policy strategies to support a more robust Australian role in the region.
While contemporary Australia has been far removed from the harsh realities of conflict, with many generations never enduring the reality of rationing for food, energy, medical supplies or luxury goods, and even fewer within modern Australia understanding the socio-political and economic impact such rationing would have on the now world-leading Australian standard of living.
Enhancing Australia’s capacity to act as an independent power, incorporating great power-style strategic economic, diplomatic and military capability serves as a powerful symbol of Australia’s sovereignty and evolving responsibilities in supporting and enhancing the security and prosperity of Indo-Pacific Asia. This is particularly well explained by Peter Zeihan, who explains: “A de-globalised world doesn’t simply have a different economic geography, it has thousands of different and separate geographies. Economically speaking, the whole was stronger for the inclusion of all its parts. It is where we have gotten our wealth and pace of improvement and speed. Now the parts will be weaker for their separation.”
Accordingly, shifting the public discussion and debate away from the default Australian position of “it is all a little too difficult, so let’s not bother” will provide unprecedented economic, diplomatic, political and strategic opportunities for the nation.
As events continue to unfold throughout the region and China continues to throw its economic, political and strategic weight around, can Australia afford to remain a secondary power, or does it need to embrace a larger, more independent role in an era of increasing great power competition?
Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch
Stephen Kuper
Steve has an extensive career across government, defence industry and advocacy, having previously worked for cabinet ministers at both Federal and State levels.
