Eyes on the prize: Xi’s message reasserts Taiwan desire

It is the confrontation that the world and the Indo-Pacific, in particular, hope never happens, a direct and open conflict between the United States and its allies and China over the small, island nation of Taiwan in the far-flung western Pacific. With growing antagonism and sabre-rattling from Beijing seeking to solve its “Taiwan problem”, reinforced by growing speculation from leading US defence leaders like former Commander, US Indo-Pacific Commander, Admiral (ret’d) Philip Davidson testifying to the Senate armed services committee, “Taiwan is clearly one of their [Beijing’s] ambitions before then. And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years.”

This ominous warning heralds a more concerning impact for the global order, should a conflict break out of Taiwan, with ADM Davidson further adding, “I worry that they’re [Beijing] accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order, which they’ve long said that they want to do that by 2050. I’m worried about them moving that target closer.”

Through the Cold War-era policy of “strategic ambiguity”, the United States has managed to keep the tensions across the Taiwan Strait from spiralling out control, in spite of various periods of flare up, such as the Taiwan Strait Crisis in the mid-90s; however, now this strategy appears to be facing ambiguity in its own being.

Nevertheless, it goes without saying that when it comes to Taiwan, the stakes are high.

As a result, despite a protracted period of the silent treatment characterising the relationship, or rather, situationship between the two superpowers, US President Biden and his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping kickstarted a period of detente at a bilateral conference in San Francisco ahead of the 2023 APEC meeting.

However, despite the seemingly optimistic outcome from the bilateral meeting, Xi Jinping’s true intentions towards reunification between mainland China and Taiwan remain evident, which ultimately spells trouble for the world, something highlighted by Josh Rogin, foreign policy columnist at The Washington Post, in a piece titled, Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan.

Rogin demonstrates this, stating, “Leaders in Washington and Taipei can’t allow optimism about the US-China relationship to obscure the fact that Xi is rapidly altering the status quo around Taiwan and interfering in Taiwanese politics more than ever before. Xi has revealed his true intentions. Ignoring his ominous words and actions would be the most dangerous policy of all.”

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Don’t be fooled by the niceties

Much of the media coverage around the anticipated bilateral meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi emphasised a return to “normality” or at the very least, a thawing in the relationship between the world’s two superpowers.

This return to normality was seen as particularly important given the period of diplomatic isolation and increased brinkmanship across the Indo-Pacific imposed by China following the US and Australian-led request for an inquiry into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, not all is as it seems, and Rogin warns against falling prey to the comforting belief that renewed dialogue between the two superpowers negates all threats towards the global order and Taiwan in particular.

Rogin states, “Many in Washington are pointing to last week’s meeting between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping as a sign that the two great powers are growing closer. But on the most important issue in the relationship – Taiwan – Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi’s rhetoric indicates he’s getting impatient with the status quo – and his actions are even more worrisome.

Unpacking this further, Rogin explains, “During the two leaders’ private meeting in the San Francisco Bay Area, Xi struck some ominous notes on Taiwan. Regarding Beijing’s long-standing desire to bring the island under its control, Xi said his ‘preference was for peaceful reunification,’ a senior US official told reporters – but then Xi outlined several scenarios under which he might use force. Biden reiterated to Xi that the United States supports the status quo and is determined to maintain peace.”

Highlighting this further, Rogin quoted a senior US official, who adds, particularly concerningly, “Xi responded, ‘Look, peace is all well and good, but at some point we need to move toward resolution more generally.”

For Rogin, this spells major trouble as it highlights an increasing impatience within Xi and his administration over the “Taiwan question”, which only becomes increasingly important when measured against the backdrop of China’s declining economic performance, and its implications on Xi’s foreign and domestic policies and objectives.

Explaining this, Rogin states, “Some current and former officials highlighted this quote as evidence Xi is getting increasingly impatient, suggesting that he intends to ramp up efforts to coerce Taiwan into unifying with the People’s Republic. Matthew Pottinger, deputy national security adviser to President Donald Trump, noted that the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s readout of the meeting said Xi told Biden that the United States should actually ‘support China’s peaceful reunification’ – a particularly bad sign, Pottinger said.”

‘Stop arming Taiwan’

While Xi seemingly “prefers” peaceful reunification, his message and intent is more clearly hidden in his rhetoric and warning to the US President during their bilateral conversation, which Rogin highlights, stating, “Xi aggressively warned Biden against arming Taiwan and also urged him not to support Taiwanese Vice-President Lai Ching-te in his presidential bid ahead of elections in January, they said.

“Beijing sees Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party as ‘pro-independence.’ Lai and President Tsai Ing-wen have repeatedly explained that they do not seek formal independence for Taiwan, but they’re under attack by Beijing nonetheless. Tsai has refused to affirm what’s called the 1992 Consensus, which essentially asserts that Taiwan is a part of China. And Beijing sees the opposition Nationalist Party as more friendly,” Rogin added.

This direct and seemingly implicit warning, if not outright threat to the United States, serves to highlight Xi’s true intentions and ambitions towards the island democracy of Taiwan, and more broadly the post-Second World War order that ironically China owes it’s truly transformational economic wealth and prosperity to.

Unpacking this, Rogin adds, “To drive home the threat that the DPP will lead Taiwan into war, the Chinese military has menaced the island with record numbers of warplanes and naval vessels in recent months. China sent 21 military aircraft and seven ships into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone just days after the Biden-Xi meeting.”

Rogin adds, “The limited achievements of the Biden-Xi meetings, such as restoring US-China military communications (which Beijing cut off last year to protest then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit), are positive. Yet these hopeful developments mask a grim reality: Xi is telling the world through both words and actions that he intends to take over Taiwan one way or another – and everyone else should either actively help or just accept it.”

Final thoughts

Any potential conflict over Taiwan, whether directly or indirectly involving the United States, will have dramatic and potentially disastrous implications for Australia’s economic and strategic security in the Indo-Pacific, necessitating a comprehensive rethink about the way Australia conducts itself and faces the challenges in the region.

In this era of renewed competition between autarchy and democracy, this is a conversation that needs to be had in the open with the Australian people, as ultimately, they will be called upon to help implement it, to consent to the direction, and to defend it should diplomacy fail.

Dr Ross Babbage of the Centre for Strategic Budgetary Assessments told Defence Connect, “I think what we’ve got to show what’s the vision for Australia, you know, what can we achieve and what you know if we go on the trajectory we are on at the moment. I’ll tell you what, you know, a lot of people, a lot more people in a decade’s time are likely to be either in really dumb jobs or maybe not have jobs at all, and in the society be a lot weaker and will be a lot less prosperous.

“So what we want to say is, look, there’s plenty of scope for doing more and smarter things, encouraging investment to do that, and then there will be some very, very interesting additional jobs and opportunities, a lot of high tech, and so on, I can tell you that, you know, talking to foreign investors, they’re quite keen on principle to work here, and do a lot more here and provide a lot more good jobs for Australians,” he explained.

This requires a greater degree of transparency and a culture of collaboration between the nation’s strategic policymakers and elected officials and the constituents they represent and serve – equally, this approach will need to entice the Australian public to once again invest in and believe in the future direction of the nation.

Get involved with the discussion and let us know your thoughts on Australia’s future role and position in the Indo-Pacific region and what you would like to see from Australia’s political leaders in terms of partisan and bipartisan agenda setting in the comments section below, or get in touch at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..