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This year is shaping up as the most opportune time in recent memory for an attempted annexation of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China.
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Never before has the world’s attention been so firmly divided across the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and possible escalations in the Red Sea and Iran, which present a unique opportunity for a lightning-fast, full-scale amphibious invasion or extended blockade of Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific.
The Chinese government remains adamant that the Republic of China (Taiwan) and its population of more than 23.5 million people, located 160 kilometres from south-east China, will return under Beijing’s control and has confirmed use of force is an option to achieve this core objective.
Taiwan itself maintains an entirely separate democracy with its own government and military after China’s former Kuomintang nationalist government, led by General Chiang Kai-shek, was driven from the mainland by Mao Zedong’s Communist Party forces at the Chinese Civil War in 1949.
A significant driving force behind the goal of reunification is the longstanding promise made by the Communist Party of China to restore that fractured history and this has been further revised into the CCP’s constitution as the most important objective during leader Xi Jinping’s third term until 2027.
“Next year will mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China,” said Chinese President Xi Jinping during his 2024 New Year message published on 31 December last year.
“We will steadfastly advance Chinese modernisation, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy on all fronts, speed-up building the new development paradigm, promote high-quality development, and both pursue development and safeguard security.
“We will continue to act on the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing the new before abolishing the old.
“We will consolidate and strengthen the momentum of economic recovery, and work to achieve steady and long-term economic development.
“We will deepen reform and opening up across the board, further enhance people’s confidence in development, promote vibrant development of the economy, and redouble efforts to boost education, advance science and technology and cultivate talents.
“We will continue to support Hong Kong and Macao in harnessing their distinctive strengths, better integrating themselves into China’s overall development, and securing long-term prosperity and stability.
“China will surely be reunified, and all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
International analysts have previously speculated that a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan could be put into place between 2022 to 2049, with a more focused “Davidson Window” before 2027.
“I worry that they’re (China) accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order ... by 2050,” said United States Indo-Pacific Command former Commander, Admiral Philip Davidson, speaking to a US Senate armed services committee hearing in 2021.
“Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before that. And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years (before 2027).
“We are accumulating risk that may embolden China to unilaterally change the status quo before our forces may be able to deliver an effective response.
“I cannot for the life of me understand some of the capabilities that they’re putting in the field, unless ... it is an aggressive posture.”
Militarily, it may suit the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to act sooner rather than later as Taiwan’s military is currently considered under-equipped and foreign military sales are expected to harden the island’s defences over the coming years. Those sales include Volcano anti-tank munitions, improved Block 70 F-16 fighters jets, F-16 infrared search and track systems, M1A2T Abrams main battle tanks, among other systems.
The United States has also recently signed off on an US$80 million grant to Taiwan for the purchase of American military equipment under foreign military finance late last year and the island has already accumulated a backlog of more than $14 billion in military equipment on order but not yet delivered.
“The Taiwan question is purely an internal affair of China, which brooks no external interference. The development of military ties between the US and China’s Taiwan region has severely violated the one-China principle and the stipulations of three China-US joint communiqués,” according to comments made by PRC Ministry of National Defense Senior Colonel Wu Qian at a regular press conference on 28 December 2023.
“This move has also seriously undermined China’s sovereignty and security interests, harmed peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and sent a wrong message to the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces.
“We urge the US to pull back before it is too late, stop its dangerous moves of arming Taiwan, and take concrete actions to honour its commitment of not supporting ‘Taiwan independence’.
“Those who play with fire will get themselves burned. We sternly warn the DPP authorities that soliciting foreign support to seek ‘Taiwan independence’ by force is doomed to failure.”
Politically, Taiwanese citizens are heading into a presidential election on 13 January to elect their next president, vice-president, and legislative representatives.
Both major parties could signal a win for the PRC with the possible election of a more conservative and more Beijing-friendly Kuomintang party presenting the opportunity for non-confrontational unity, while the re-election of the current confrontational Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan (who have been in power for the last eight years) could instead be disputed, rallied against, and later used as justification for military intervention.
The most beneficial period of this year for possible invasion would likely be timed with the impending 2023 United States presidential election scheduled in November.
It’s expected that incumbent president and Democratic Party member Joe Biden will again face his predecessor and Republican Party member Donald Trump in the race back to the White House.
A repeat of the 6 January United States Capitol attack and general chaos that unfolded domestically in the US following the 2020 presidential election result could provide a viable opportunity for the PRC to sweep across the water to Taiwan using a combination of civilian and military transport vessels. As an added benefit, any change in leadership occurring at that time may adversely impact US armed force readiness and response time.
It’s also not certain that the American public would support another confrontation so far from the United States’ home borders after a number of ill-advised forays into the Middle East. A vote of no-confidence from US leadership (no direct US intervention) would also likely direct other regional nations (South Korea, Japan, etc) to withhold their own troops, potentially setting up an undefendable “Taiwan stands alone” situation.
Under current US-Taiwan relations, the US opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side (PRC or Taiwan), does not support Taiwan independence, and expects cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means.
However, on paper, the US only provides Taiwan with military equipment it needs to defend itself, and there is no formal defence agreement between the two countries in the event of invasion by the PRC. A convenient get-out-of-jail-free card if the re-elected or new US administration was caught off balance by a surprise action against the island.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking at Stanford University in California during 2022, said China was moving up plans on a “much faster timeline” than previously expected to annex Taiwan.
“There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years. And instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, [there was] a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline,” Blinken said in a conversation with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of Defense, James Mattis.
Final Thoughts
The taking of Taiwan this year would be a valuable morale boost for the mainland Chinese population for the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China and display a significant sign of realised international military strength ahead of the People’s Liberation Army centennial in 2027.
The decision to act remains at the sole knowledge and discretion of just one man, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary and Central Military Commission chairman Xi Jinping.
A successful reunification of Taiwan would undoubtedly cement Xi’s individual legacy for generations in the history of the nation and planet.
