PM issues challenge, sets out vision for confronting decade of disruption, danger

Australia has long enjoyed its position as the world’s “Lucky Country”, blessed with bountiful resources and opportunity, geographically isolated from the major centres of power and competition that plunged the world into devastating conflagration during the 20th century; however, today, the world we confront is dramatically different.

The global balance of power has slowly started to shift away from Europe and North America towards Asia and the Indo-Pacific, driven in large part by the re-emergence of China and, to a lesser extent, India – two ancient powers backed by the equally astronomical rise of regional nations like Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the like.

However, for Australia, the period of economic growth over the last three decades, driven in large part by the voracious appetite of these regional neighbours, further shielded Australia from the otherwise harsh reality of the contemporary world, further entrenching Australia’s “Long Holiday from History”.

This demand for Australia’s raw mineral and agricultural wealth – flanked by our services, economy, and the always lucrative Australian real estate market – effectively protected the nation from the worst of the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, and even to a degree, the broader global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

While both Australia and the world adapted, at least somewhat to the normality of the economic headwinds during this period, ever the revolutionary power, the People’s Republic of China, began reasserting itself throughout the region, often bringing it into direct, albeit below the threshold of direct armed conflict

China’s hostility towards and ambitions for the post-Second World War order has only become more prominent in recent years, prompting nations across the Indo-Pacific to recognise that “End of History” may not actually be a reality and once again the world is facing the potential of armed conflict between nations.

For Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the challenges that face the nation are legion and require a considered, targeted approach to ensure that the “Lucky Country” remains just that.

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Highlighting this, Simon Benson, political editor for The Australian, has spoken to the Prime Minister in a piece titled, Crunch time for the nation – and the PM, in which the Prime Minister articulated his vision for the nation and how it will not just survive in the coming decade of disruption and danger, but also, thrive.

Resilience essential to confronting disorder

Both sides of Australian politics have increasingly recognised that Australia confronts the most dangerous and contested period in lived memory, if not since the decade preceding the outbreak of the Second World War in 1939.

The strategic environment is further compounded by the economic and technological disruption rapidly changing the global and regional balance of power and is increasingly influencing both domestic and international political decisions and policy making.

Highlighting this, Benson stated, “Anthony Albanese believes it is this decade that will be the defining one for the nation. The strategic and economic outlook has rarely been more uncertain. Having emerged from the pandemic, the West has continued to career towards a broader and more hazardous footing, militarily and ideologically. This carries with it obvious and potentially profound economic consequences.”

The Prime Minister expanded on this, telling Benson, “This decade will shape how Australia is able to not just manage the years ahead but prosper in the years ahead ... You have strategic competition in the region and global uncertainty that potentially flows through to the economy, and that is something you just have to factor in. There are three areas of potential shock: one is global pandemic, which we have seen the impact of; the second is cyber security, a huge risk factor; and the third is conflict. And I would add to that climate change.”

Further to this, the Prime Minister explained the impact of the global shift, particularly the impact of Ukraine conflict, the rise of cyber warfare, stating, “And the impact of conflict in Ukraine continues to play out, you have the Middle East, and there is a cost to this global uncertainty. Part of the response is to look at defence and national security, whether it is AUKUS or cyber security.”

The message from the Prime Minister is clear, the world we now live in is vastly different to that of just a decade ago.

Responding to this array of challenges is now the priority for the Prime Minister, with him stressing the importance of our nation’s defence and national resilience key to Australia not only surviving this era of renewed great power competition, but also thriving and embracing the opportunities present.

“You can’t defend Australia with a press release, you need assets. That’s what the strategic review was about; it identified some of what we need to do. We are dealing with that. There were so many programs over budget and behind time,” the Prime Minister told Simon Benson.

Adding further weight to the Prime Minister’s intent is Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers who expanded on the Prime Minister’s comments, telling Benson, “There is no shortage of challenges in our economy as we start 2024, but we are confident that we can get on top of them as a country. Higher interest rates are slowing our economy, we are seeing global uncertainty and global conflict, there’s persistent inflation even as it has moderated substantially since 2022, and we’ve also had severe weather across the country.”

Unpacking the implications for Australia’s defence and national security, the Treasurer added, “When we look out to the region, we see intensifying great power competition, rising tensions, military build-up and also reduced warning time for conflict. The government is clear, and the Defence Strategic Review is clear, on the changes in our strategic environment.

“We will make sure members of the Australian Defence Force have the capability they need to protect and defend our country, that’s a priority. Defence is one of the five fastest-growing areas of government spending but I’m confident we can satisfy our geostrategic objectives and our fiscal strategy at the same time. One of the most important reasons to get the budget in much better nick is so we can afford our priorities, build a buffer against uncertainty and save on debt interest,” the Treasurer expanded further.

Final thoughts

We have to accept that while the world is increasingly becoming “multipolar”, the Indo-Pacific, in particular, is rapidly becoming the most hotly contested region in the world.

Underpinned by the emerging economic, political, and strategic might of powers like China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, and the established and re-emerging capability of both South Korea and Japan, in particular, are serving to create a hotbed of competition on our doorstep.

Recognising this array of challenges and opportunities, both the Australian public and its policymakers need to look beyond the myopic lens that has traditionally dominated our diplomatic, strategic, and economic policy making since Federation.

Ultimately, we need to see Australia begin to play the long game to fully capitalise on the opportunities transforming the Indo-Pacific. The most important questions now become, when will we see a more detailed analysis and response to the challenges and opportunities facing Australia and when will we see both a narrative and strategy that better helps industry and the Australian public understand the challenges faced and opportunities we have presented before us?

As events continue to unfold throughout the region and China continues to throw its economic, political, and strategic weight around, can Australia afford to remain a secondary power, or does it need to embrace a larger, more independent role in an era of increasing great power competition?