Albanese uncertain on cooperation with possible Trump administration

Prime Minister Albanese was quizzed on the possible outcome and consequential strategic changes in the Australia-United States relationship during a media interview by Sky News on 22 January.

Former president Donald Trump is the strong favourite to win the Republican nomination and face incumbent US President and Democratic Party leader Joe Biden during the 2024 United States presidential elections in November this year.

“What’s important is that we respect democratic processes. And the United States is a nation of which we have no closer ally,” Albanese said during the interview.

“I have a good relationship obviously with President Biden. But we respect those democratic processes in the United States, we’ll deal with whatever the outcome.

“We will work with whatever the outcome is because the relationship between Australia and the United States is not just a relationship between individuals or leaders.

“It’s a relationship between our peoples, and it’s based upon the democratic values that we share, the cause of freedom that we have fought for together. And that’s why the relationship is so strong.

“I’m not going to pre-empt the democratic processes in the United States. I would say that the relationship that we have with the United States has never been stronger.

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“The AUKUS relationship is quite had extraordinary. We’re working on areas like critical minerals and dealing with the challenge of climate change. We’re working together on the QUAD in the region. And we have a very close relationship and that’s a good thing.”

In the not-so-distant past, then-opposition leader Albanese spoke out against former US president Trump in the wake of the 6 January United States Capitol riots, describing him as a character who “sought to undermine democratic process”.

“As we get reminded time and time again, when it’s the United States government that changes, the impact radiates throughout the world,” he said on 20 January 2021.

“US democracy has shown its resilience. Attempts to undermine it have failed. But America came close to the brink.

“The images we woke to on January 7 diminished those who seek to harm it. They explain why it was so important for all of America’s allies to be utterly unambiguous when President Trump sought to undermine the democratic process.

“Under President Trump, we saw the first steps in a retreat by the US from its historical role as the leader of the post-War international order; an order whose underlying values are those which Australians hold dear.

“It appeared the US was no longer interested in being the indispensable power.”

If history repeats itself, former US president Trump (if re-elected) could continue a “Make America Great Again” style of foreign policy and diplomacy, originally seen during his previous administration from 2017 to 2021.

In his inaugural address last time, Trump announced foreign policy and trade would be re-centred on sharing the defence and economic burden of alliances and trade.

Following this, the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement in January 2017 and directed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to “contribute their fair share” in May of that year. The US also withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council in June 2018 as well as the World Health Organization, cutting funding in July 2020.

During his term in office, the US administration conducted surgical strikes in the Middle East with a cruise missile strike authorised against Shayrat Air Base in Syria during April 2017 and another three strikes conducted with the United Kingdom and France in April 2018.

In addition, Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed by US special forces and his successor killed in a separate raid in October 2019. A US drone strike killed Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad during January 2020.

Diplomatic relations were strengthened with Israel after Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017, followed by moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in May 2018.

Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also announced their peace plan proposal for Gaza, developed without Palestinian input, in January 2020, followed by Israel signing US-brokered agreements to normalise relations with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates in late 2020.

Diplomatic relations improved with Saudi Arabia after it was named as a major US regional partner, oil supplier, and purchaser of defence equipment and Trump expressed support for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in late 2018.

In comparison, the US announced the withdrawal of more than 2,000 troops from Syria in December 2018 (with US troops withdrawal from Northern Syria in October 2019) and asked the Pentagon to draft a withdrawal of half of those serving in Afghanistan. In addition, sanctions were reinstated against Iran following withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Agreement.

Closer to home, US-Cuba relations were rolled back while trade and travel restrictions were reinstated in June 2017. Trump also campaigned to “build a wall” between the US and Mexico.

Former US president Trump also met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during the 2018 North Korea-United States Singapore Summit in June 2018, the first ever meeting between each country’s leaders. He also became the first sitting US president to set foot in North Korea, crossing the Demilitarized Zone in June 2019 for another meeting with Kim Jong-un.

He also met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in July 2018.