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As is prudent in the aftermath of a crisis, political discourse, government response and protocol adapts to better suit the public sentiment and expectations – the COVID-19 outbreak will be no different, as many within both the Australian political class and the public come to terms with the end of the post-Cold War order and its impact on Australia’s public policymaking.
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For better or worse, the public perception of Australian politics over the past two decades has been mired by political infighting and assassinations, drawing the ire of the public and allegations of the Canberra bubble being far too concerned with keeping their own jobs and jockeying for favour in the revolving door of political leadership.
One could be forgiven for overlooking the insider games and politicking between 2010 and the rise of Prime Minister Scott Morrison in mid-2018 as the result of three decades of uninterrupted economic, political and strategic stability, however, like all good things, this too comes to an end.
The disastrous bushfires, coupled with rising great power tensions between the US and China and now the global outbreak of the coronavirus – which has left behind a swathe of economic, political and strategic turmoil around the Indo-Pacific, North America and Europe – serves to further shake the public confidence in government and its institutions.
Highlighting the growing shift in public consciousness surrounding the nation's political discourse, Graeme Dobell, writing for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has penned an interesting piece, titled 'The politics of pandemic' , in which he seeks to foretell the impact of COVID-19 on Australia's political discourse.
Dobell launches his thesis, stating, "Pandemic has smashed into Australia’s capital, remaking the dynamic and direction of politics. Normal politics has ceased. Amazing political consensus has arrived. It won’t last, but it’s still amazing.
"COVID-19 is changing the way Canberra does what it does, shifting lots of big p-words: power, policy and long-held political positions."
This spells out interesting times ahead for the nation's political leaders, an increasingly disinfranchised public concerned about the length of social distancing, the seemingly chaotic inter-jurisdictional blame game between states, territories and the Commonwealth and the big 'R' word: recession.
"Bad things change nations – wars, economic depressions and pandemics. And the war against the virus will push Australia towards depression. The recession that’s about to hit Australia will drive politics long after we get a vaccine for COVID-19," Dobell articulates.
So, where does this leave the nation? Well, it's an interesting question and one that needs more thorough debate, conversation and public input.
"We're all Keynesians now"
Dobell is clear in articulating the impact of the shift in public policymaking, largely in response to the Commonwealth's $200 billion stimulus package, which has very thinly veiled Keynesian overtones.
"The length and depth of the recession will be what matters politically. To get a short, shallow recession, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has abruptly killed the Liberal political mantra: 'budget deficit, bad; budget surplus, good'," he states.
"Like toilet paper and hand sanitiser disappearing from supermarket shelves, the much-anticipated surplus is whisked away by the emergency that demands constant washing of hands. We’re all Keynesians now.
"In three frantic weeks, the government has announced spending measures worth $200 billion. To support financial markets, the Reserve Bank and the Office of Financial Management will throw in a further $105 billion. Combined, those measures are equivalent to about 16 per cent of GDP."
Unlike the interventions championed by the Rudd-Gillard government in response to the GFC, however, the Morrison intervention seems more as a place holder for true economic reform and a return to true economic diversity, something the COVID-19 outbreak has prompted growing public support for in light of increasingly tenuous access to global supply chains.
In particular, this stimulus fails to address any number of major structural issues that hinder the resilience of both the Australian public and the national economy during times of individual or concurrent stressor factors.
A particular, 'value-adding' area is the Infrastructure Australia and World Bank-backed $200 billion infrastructure shortfall, which successive governments have struggled to get their hands around that could be used to provide long-term economic growth. Additionally, this $200 billion shortfall is only for infrastructure required "today".
What this fails to account for is the increased pressures of population growth, climate change, growing demands for baseload power, water security and the like; taking those individual factors into account would exponentially explode that $200 billion shortfall.
Now, keeping individual and business cash flow turning over and supporting families are critical components to minimising the impact of the coming recession, however, growing political unease and increased distrust regarding the Australian political class adds further conundrums worth both consideration and public conversation.
Recession? Depression? Either way, it's a bad time to be a pollie
Dobell correctly identifies that both the public frustrations at government response and the inter-jurisdictional squabbling doesn't protect the nation or their individual interests, nor does it pay their bills, feed their families and provide the services they require and expect.
For Morrison, Dobell believes this will be a major challenge at the next federal election, scheduled to take place between August 2021 and May 2022 – this is a particularly poignant issue following the unexpected victory of the Morrison government in May 2019.
"Morrison won his ‘miracle’ election on 18 May 2019. That means he’ll be seeking his next miraculous performance at a half-Senate and House of Representatives poll that must be held between 7 August 2021 and 21 May 2022," Dobell states.
"The Morrison government won’t face the people next year. Wager that Australia’s next federal election will be held on that last possible day, 21 May 2022, allowing time for three more budgets.
"The first will be the 2020 budget now pushed from May to October. The second budget, in 2021, would normally happen in May, but recession uncertainty might push it to later in the year. The third, in 2022, will repeat the budget-and-election formula that worked so well for Morrison last year: bring down an ‘early’ budget in April to launch the campaign for a May poll.
"In two years, Morrison will be bringing down the budget before pivoting immediately to an election campaign. He has just 24 months to deal with pandemic and recession, then start the rebuild. Make or break."
However, Dobell misses the key point; the Australian people, like many of their contemporaries throughout the developed world, have seen the vulnerability of their nations and just how isolated they can become within a 'globalised' world at a time when governments of both authoritarian and democratic persuasions struggle to respond.
In doing so, Dobell fails to see the opportunity for the government or the opposition to chart a way forward and fulfil the Australian public's demands for greater national independence, security and resilience at a moment when the rest of the world is scurrying to secure themselves.
However, Dobell does highlight the growing potential and promise the disruption caused by both the bushfires and COVID-19 presents both the Australian public and policy makers, stating, "For now, Morrison says, there are no red teams or blue teams. Australia comes together to confront a powerful enemy.
"When red and blue politics resume, the terrain will be much altered. Old arguments will have less force. New thoughts will take hold. Amazing times."
Your thoughts
Australia’s position and responsibilities in the Indo-Pacific region will depend on the nation’s ability to sustain itself economically, strategically and politically.
Despite the nation’s virtually unrivalled wealth of natural resources, agricultural and industrial potential, there is a lack of a cohesive national security strategy integrating the development of individual yet complementary public policy strategies to support a more robust Australian role in the region.
Enhancing Australia’s capacity to act as an independent power, incorporating great power-style strategic economic, diplomatic and military capability serves as a powerful symbol of Australia’s sovereignty and evolving responsibilities in supporting and enhancing the security and prosperity of Indo-Pacific Asia.
However, as events continue to unfold throughout the region and China continues to throw its economic, political and strategic weight around, can Australia afford to remain a secondary power or does it need to embrace a larger, more independent role in an era of increasing great power competition?
Rear Admiral Kevin Scarce also issued a challenge for Australia's political and strategic policy leaders, saying:
"If we observe that the level of debate among our leaders is characterised by mud-slinging, obfuscation and the deliberate misrepresentation of the views of others, why would the community behave differently ... Our failure to do so will leave a very damaging legacy for future generations."
Further complicating the nation’s calculations is the declining diversity of the national economy, the ever-present challenge of climate change impacting droughts, bushfires and floods, Australia’s energy security and the infrastructure needed to ensure national resilience.
Let us know your thoughts and ideas about the development of a holistic national strategy to co-ordinate the nation’s response to mounting pressure from nation-state and asymmetric challenges in the comments section below, or get in touch with
Stephen Kuper
Steve has an extensive career across government, defence industry and advocacy, having previously worked for cabinet ministers at both Federal and State levels.
