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A strategic summary of the Taliban's growth in Afghanistan.
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Following the recent staged withdrawal of the US and its coalition partners, the Taliban has managed to rapidly regain lost ground in Afghanistan.
Just this week, the Taliban claimed to have captured 100 districts across the country during the fray.
Emerging Europe and the Foundation for Defence of Democracies paints a stark picture. “Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, estimates that the Taliban controls more than 140 districts out of 419 in the whole country. More than 170 other districts are estimated to be contested,” Christian Mamo of Emerging Europe wrote.
According to the numbers, it is clear that the Afghan government has been unable to assert competitive control over much of the country. If this is the ground the Afghan National Army has lost with the deterrent of coalition troops, a post-US Afghanistan spells disaster for the government.
Not only has violence escalated across the country, but the propaganda war between the government and the Taliban has also dramatically increased, with both sides sharing video clips of mass defections between the forces.
Such defections from the Afghan National Army as evidenced by the video above serve only to erode the confidence of regular Afghans in their government thus reducing government legitimacy, while also providing the Taliban with stronger and better weaponry.
Elsewhere in the country though, anti-Taliban sentiment has skyrocketed with videos of young men brandishing weapons threatening to repel the Taliban.
“This is the first time I am holding a gun,” 20-year-old Safar Mohammad said in The World public radio program this week.
“The terrorists are threatening my hometown, and I’m ready to fight them.”
“We fought them just the other night,” Mohammed continued. “They lost a few fighters, but thankfully, none of our men were killed or injured.”
The growth of anti-Taliban sentiment across tribal pockets of the country was reflected by Professor Amin Saikal of the University of Western Australia in ASPI’s The Strategist this week.
“However, the Taliban wouldn’t find it easy in any way to impose their writ across the country. The militia isn’t very popular, and its appeal doesn’t cut across numerous political and social cleavages in the country. Localised or regionalised deterrence forces have already started consolidating to fight it. The situation could descend into a devastating, multi-layered civil war, with Afghanistan’s neighbours and other regional actors scrambling for influence by backing different groups, as happened when the Taliban ruled,” Saikal wrote.
The withdrawal of coalition forces has not only worried those Afghan nationals who lived in allied districts, but also those Afghans who actively supported the coalition forces.
Among those are translators who worked with allied security forces, and are now seeking asylum away from the resurgent Taliban. The ABC’s Andrew Greene wrote in early June about an Afghan translator who has been placed on a Taliban death list for his work alongside Australian soldiers. Fortunately for those who helped Australian soldiers, the government has over the last month flown them to Australia.
Not all allied translators are safe just yet, however.
The UK’s Daily Mail launched the “Mail’s Betrayal of the Brave campaign” to support the migration of former translators and their families to the UK to escape the Taliban’s resurgence. The campaign to date has been successful.
Meanwhile, up to 18,000 Afghans who supported coalition forces have faced an unnerving wait to see whether the US will relocate them. Just last week, the White House confirmed that they will be moved to a third country.
The US has however refused to fully withdraw from the country, maintaining several safeguards in place to hinder the movement and growth of Taliban forces. Namely, airstrikes.
General Scott Miller, the US’ current leading military official in Afghanistan made stark warnings to the Taliban this week to cease violence.
“What I like to see is no air strikes, but to get to no air strikes, you stop all violence,” he said.
“The best way to stop those, and I have actually told the Taliban this, is stop the offensive operations and air strikes.
“Because districts start representing key terrain as it relates to security of the people, of the provincial capitals and certainly security of the capital.”
However, the threats have made little difference to the growth of the Taliban.
Recently, the Taliban has made critical strategic acquisitions including the capturing of a border crossing with Tajikistan with Afghan soldiers fleeing across the border seeking asylum.
“We were forced to leave all check posts … and some of our soldiers crossed the border into Tajikistan,” one of the soldiers told the AFP.
“By the morning, they were everywhere, hundreds of them.”
Afghanistan is a country on the verge of civil war. While the Taliban has made large territorial gains, anti-Taliban sentiment still rages across the country. However, what is certain is that few have faith in the government to maintain control.
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Liam Garman
Editor – Defence and Security, Momentum Media
