Violent contagion – How the Russian invasion of Ukraine could spark fresh hostilities in the Middle East

Analysts have pointed to Russia’s bungled invasion of Ukraine as a catalyst for renewed hostilities in the Middle East, evaluating a range of potential scenarios that are likely to precipitate further decline in regional co-operation.

At the core of the analyses are scenarios in which either: a weaker Russia vacates its allies in the region, a belligerent Russia refuses to work with the West in addressing counter-terrorism and negotiating the Iran deal, or even fresh Saudi-Iranian hostilities as Russia turns inwards and the US turns toward the Asia-Pacific region.

These concerns were examined by senior research associate with the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Hanna Notte, outlining that a weaker – yet more antagonistic Russia – coupled with a disengaged US would threaten relative stability in the Middle East.

“In Syria, Russia and the West have in recent years competed for influence, deconflicted to avoid clashes, while cooperating selectively on counter-terrorism, humanitarian issues, and a political process under UN auspices,” Notte explains.

“On Iran, they have managed to insulate co-operation on the nuclear dossier even amid growing tensions surrounding Ukraine, yet failed to join forces in tackling a broader regional arms-control agenda.”

However, Notte explains that a weaker and more cynical Russia may seek retribution by suspending their previous cooperation with the US against ISIS in the Levant, and seek to minimise their role in restraining explicit Iranian intentions under the Iran nuclear deal.

On the other side of the coin, the analyst suggests that the invasion of Ukraine may leave European negotiators with little appetite to find mutually agreeable outcomes seeking to restrain Russia’s regional ally.

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While not necessarily a pre-condition to war, Notte explains that these events could threaten a reduction in cooperation between states in the region and prompt new conflict.

These scenarios could prove problematic for the West since Russia has grown their presence in the region while the United States has strategically re-postured to the Asia-Pacific. In fact, Notte explains that Russia even deployed critical military infrastructure to Syria less than a fortnight before the invasion of Ukraine.

“Russian exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean last summer, which involved Tu-22M3 bombers and MiG-31K interceptors with Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, served as a reminder that Russia can quickly position serious naval and aerial assets to Syria. Ten days prior to its invasion of Ukraine, Russia redeployed the same systems to the area,” Notte continued.

Despite this, a continued Russian military presence in the region is far from guaranteed as Russia regathers its forces and tries to minimise the deployment of costly expeditionary forces.

While some may suggest that the absence of Russian and US geopolitical interests in the region could result in an era of improved co-operation, there appears to be little appetite among regional actors to come to the negotiating table in the absence of global superpowers.

“Developments since the Ukraine invasion — be it the recent Iranian strikes on Israeli targets in Erbil, the suspension of Iranian-Saudi talks, or Friday’s Houthi attack on an oil depot in the Saudi city of Jeddah — raise doubts over the robustness of that realization, however,” Notte argues.

Nevertheless, the United States’ traditional allies in the region simply are not happy with growing US disengagement and ongoing negotiations with Iran.

A weak Russia and a disengaged US, will the US’ Gulf allies cosy up to China?

In fact, so much so has US disengagement concerned the West’s allies in the region that leading media personalities have attacked the US for abandoning their allies.

Former editor of Al Arabiya English, Saudi Arabian Mohammed Alyahya, penned an opinion piece in the Jerusalem Post over the last week likening the United States’ nuclear talks with Iran as a “divorce” with not only Saudi Arabia but stirring division with regional allies like Israel.

“Most importantly, to its authors, the deal takes the United States out of the business of containing Iran, which in response has further ramped up its attacks on regional peace and stability,” Alyahya wrote.

In fact, the former editor even ended his opinion piece with an olive branch to Beijing:

“What is not yet clear is whether the Chinese can be helpful in deterring Iran, or whether they share the American belief in 'balance'. But Xi Jinping will visit Riyadh in May. It is a certainty that Saudi leaders will ask him if Iran’s rocketing of the oil facilities of the world’s most reliable oil producer is in the interest of China and, if not, can Beijing make it stop?”

While some may look to China for future support, it is not clear whether Russia’s allies in the region will remain steadfast following the invasion of Ukraine – many of whom rely on Russian military technology.

Russian technology, not what it’s cracked up to be

In late February, Professor Spence Meredith in the Modern War Institute explained that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would bring poor Russian military technology to global attention – and undermine the competitive control the Kremlin exercises over allied rogue nations through military arms sales.

“Specifically, highlighting operational ineptitude and technical malfunctions in Ukraine can impact global arms sales and the Russian brand in the competitive market for private military companies (PMCs). Both costs would heighten intra-elite rivalries in Moscow as losses mount elsewhere,” Professor Meredith said.

“When those failures leave dead Russians in their wake, oft-repeated lies about training deaths in Ukraine, Syria, and the Central African Republic cannot easily convince the growing list of grieving Russian mothers.”

Professor Meredith’s projection has proven correct.

In early March, online sleuths took to social media to argue that a combination of poor vehicle maintenance and badly made Chinese tyres had stalled Russia’s advance to Kyiv, forcing military vehicles off of muddy fields and onto roads. This had the result of Russian-tank-induced traffic jams on major Ukrainian highways.

Last week, Major General (Ret’d) Mick Ryan questioned Russia’s lack of innovative solutions on the battlefield – whether cyber operations or machine-human teaming. These missing solutions have led to Ukrainian information dominance and an inability for Russia to dominate the air.

Twitter has also been aflame with stories of corner cutting, including use of civilian equipment throughout the invasion.

So this is just a theory, but we’ve seen some of this equipment in theater, especially cell and GPS jammers.

I think the Russians rely heavily on commercial/civilian grade gear for communication and navigation, and any jamming would seriously degrade those abilities. https://t.co/sS0sUB76ZW

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 7, 2022

This then raises questions about the ongoing loyalty of those countries that rely on Russian military technology for their warfighting capabilities.

Looking to stalled Russian advances in Ukraine, and the apparent technological corner cutting, many militaries would begin questioning the efficacy of their Russian imports: not least India and Turkey with deep ties to the West, but also Syria and Iran. Could the US lean into this to cleave them from their reliance on Russian technology?

State of play

The Middle East is in a state of flux. There appears to be growing discontent among some of the United States’ allies in the region about the country’s growing bipartisanship. Meanwhile, there is little guarantee that a weaker and poorer Russia can continue to support Iran and Syria. The future is indeed unclear.  

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